Nonviolent mass movements are the primary challengers to governments today. This represents a pronounced shift in the global landscape of dissent. Through 2010, such movements tended to be surprisingly effective in removing incumbent leaders from power, even when they experienced some repression from the government. But from 2010 through May 2016, the success rates of nonviolent campaigns declined dramatically. I speculate that although there are several probable reasons for this decline, repressive adaptations of authoritarian governments against such campaigns may be part of the story. I summarize some of the common methods of “smart” repression that many authoritarian governments have adopted in response to the growing effectiveness of nonviolent resistance. The article concludes by identifying the potential consequences of such trends for those concerned with atrocity prevention.
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Erica Chenoweth, ‘Why is Nonviolent Resistance on the Rise?’ Diplomatic Courier (28 July 2016).
Alexander B. Downes, Civilian Victimization in War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2008).
Steven Pinker, The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined (New York: Viking Books, 2011); Joshua, Goldstein, Winning the War on War (New York: W.W. Norton, 2011).
Christian Davenport, ‘State Repression and Political Order,’ Annual Review of Political Science 10:1–23 (2007).
Sabine Carey, ‘The Use of Repression as a Response to Domestic Dissent,’ Political Studies 58/1:167–186 (2010).
Christopher Sullivan, ‘Undermining Resistance: Mobilization, Repression, and the Enforcement of Political Order,’ Journal of Conflict Resolution (forthcoming).
William J. Dobson, The Dictator’s Learning Curve: Inside the Global Battle for Democracy (New York: Anchor, 2012); Steven Heydemann, Upgrading Authoritarianism in the Arab world. Saban Center Analysis Paper Series 13, Brookings Institution. October (2015); Regine Spector, ‘The Anti-Revolutionary Toolkit,’ caci Analyst, 13 December 2006; Regine Spector, and Andrej Krickovic, ‘Authoritarianism 2.0: Non-Democratic Regimes are Upgrading and Integrating Globally,’ Paper presented at the 49th Annual International Studies Association Conference, San Francisco, ca, 26 March 2008.
Erica Chenoweth and Jay Ulfelder, ‘Can Structural Factors Explain the Onset of Nonviolent Uprisings?’ Journal of Conflict Resolution (forthcoming).
Brian Martin, Justice Ignited: The Dynamics of Backfire (Lanham, Md: Rowman and Littlefield, 2007); David Hess and Brian Martin, ‘Repression, Backfire, and the Theory of Transformative Events,’ Mobilization 11/1:249–267 (2006). Gene Sharp refers to this process as “political jiu-jistu.”
Elisabeth Wood, Forging Democracy from Below: Insurgent Transitions in South Africa and El Salvador (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000).
Jacques Semelin, Unarmed Against Hitler: Civilian Resistance in Europe, 1939–1943 (Westport: Praeger, 1993); see also Jacques Semelin, Claire Andrieu, and Sarah Gensburger (eds.), Resisting Genocide: The Multiple Forms of Rescue (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004).
Veronique, Duduoet, ‘Dynamics and Factors of Transition from Armed Struggle to Nonviolent Resistance,’ Journal of Peace Research 50/3:401–413 (2013).
Desiree Nilsson, ‘Anchoring the Peace: Civil Society Actors in Peace Accords and Durable Peace,’ International Interactions 38(2):243–266 (2012).
Oliver Kaplan, ‘Nudging Armed Groups: How Civilians Transmit Norms of Protection,’ Stability: International Journal of Peacekeeping and Development 2/62:1–18 (2013).
Patrick G. Coy, ‘Nonpartisanship, Interventionism and Legality in Accompaniment: Comparative Analyses of Peace Brigades International, Christian Peacemaker Teams, and the International Solidarity Movement,’ International Journal of Human Rights 16/7: 963–981 (2012).
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Nonviolent mass movements are the primary challengers to governments today. This represents a pronounced shift in the global landscape of dissent. Through 2010, such movements tended to be surprisingly effective in removing incumbent leaders from power, even when they experienced some repression from the government. But from 2010 through May 2016, the success rates of nonviolent campaigns declined dramatically. I speculate that although there are several probable reasons for this decline, repressive adaptations of authoritarian governments against such campaigns may be part of the story. I summarize some of the common methods of “smart” repression that many authoritarian governments have adopted in response to the growing effectiveness of nonviolent resistance. The article concludes by identifying the potential consequences of such trends for those concerned with atrocity prevention.
All Time | Past 365 days | Past 30 Days | |
---|---|---|---|
Abstract Views | 3796 | 636 | 77 |
Full Text Views | 738 | 56 | 7 |
PDF Views & Downloads | 798 | 127 | 12 |