The Challenge of Forging Consent to UN Mediation in Internationalized Civil Wars: The Case of Syria
In: International NegotiationSearch for other papers by Sara Hellmüller in
Current site
Google Scholar
Abstract
This article analyzes how the internationalization of civil wars influences conflict parties’ consent to UN mediation processes. Illustrated by the UN mediation in Syria, I argue that internationalization influences consent directly by obstructing the advent of a costly stalemate and the parties’ perception of mediation as a ‘way out,’ and indirectly by reducing mediators’ leverage and perceived impartiality thereby limiting their tools to foster consent. The article makes three contributions. First, it presents a novel conceptual framework to understand the impact of internationalization on conflict parties’ consent. Second, it provides a long-term analysis of UN mediation in Syria from 2012–2020. Third, it contributes to a broader discussion about how civil wars end. This is of particular relevance as the prioritization of a political over a military end to civil wars, which was dominant in the early post-Cold War period, is no longer unquestioned.
Purchase
Buy instant access (PDF download and unlimited online access):
Institutional Login
Log in with Open Athens, Shibboleth, or your institutional credentials
Personal login
Log in with your brill.com account
-
Action Group for Syria (2012). “Final Communiqué.” Geneva: United Nations.
-
Aduda, Levke (2019). “Failed agreements and their impact on subsequentmediation onset and success in intrastate conflicts.” International Interactions 45, 5: 893–916.
-
Akpınar, Pınar (2016). “The limits of mediation in the Arab Spring: the case of Syria.” Third World Quarterly 37, 12: 2288–2303.
-
Allison, Roy (2013). “Russia and Syria: explaining alignment with a regime in crisis.” International Affairs 89, 4: 795–782.
-
Alvarez, Miguel, Sabina Avasiloae, Roxana Cristescu, Paul Dziatkowiec, Sara Hellmueller, Lars Kirchhoff, Anne Isabel Kraus, Simon Mason, Martha Mutisi, Nathan Stock, Barbara Unger and Zahbia Yousuf (2013). “Translating Mediation Guidance into Practice: Commentary on the UN Guidance for Effective Mediation by the Mediation Support Network.” Zurich: Mediation Support Network.
-
Arab League (2011). “Council Resolution 7438 [Plan of Action].”
-
Asseburg, Muriel, Wolfram Lacher and Mareike Transfeld (2018). Mission Impossible? UN-Vermittlung in Libyen, Syrien und dem Jemen. Berlin: Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik.
-
Assefa, Hizkias (1987). Mediation of Civil Wars: Approaches and Strategies: The Sudan Conflict. London: Westview.
-
Balch-Lindsay, Dylan and Andrew J. Enterline (2000). “Killing Time: The World Politics of Civil War Duration, 1820–1992.” International Studies Quarterly 44, 4: 615–642.
-
Beardsley, Kyle (2011). The Mediation Dilemma. New York: Cornell University Press.
-
Bercovitch, Jacob (1989). “International Dispute Mediation,” in Kenneth Kressel and Dean G. Pruitt, editors, Mediation Research, The Process and Effectiveness of Third Party Intervention. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
-
Bercovitch, Jacob (2009). “Mediation and Conflict Resolution,” in Jacob Bercovitch, Victor Kremenyuk and I. William Zartman, editors, The SAGE Handbook of Conflict Resolution. London: SAGE.
-
Crocker, Chester A., Fen Osler Hampson, Pamela Aall and Simon Palamar (2015). “Why Is Mediation So Hard? The Case of Syria,” in Mauro Galluccio, editors, Handbook of International Negotiation: Interpersonal, Intercultural, and Diplomatic perspectives. Cham: Springer.
-
Crocker, Ryan, William Luers and Thomas Pickering (2014). “How a U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal Could Help Save Iraq.” Washington Post, July 11.
-
Cunningham, David E. (2010). “Blocking resolution: How external states can prolong civil wars.” Journal of Peace Research 47, 2: 115–127.
-
Favretto, Katja (2009). “Should peacemakers take sides? Major power mediation, coercion, and bias.” American Political Science Review 103, 2: 248–263.
-
Fearon, James (2017). “Civil War & the Current International System.” Daedalus 146, 4: 18–32.
-
Findley, Michael and Peter Rudloff (2012). “Combatant fragmentation and the dynamics of civil wars.” British Journal of Political Science 42, 2: 879–901.
-
Gani, Jasmine K. (2019). “US policy towards the Syrian conflict under Obama: Strategic patience and miscalculation,” in Raymond A. Hinnebusch and Adham Saouli, editors, The War for Syria: Regional and International Dimensions of the Syrian Uprising. London: Routledge.
-
Gasser, Hans-Peter (1983). “Internationalized Non-International Armed Conflicts: Case Studies of Afghanistan, Kampuchea, and Lebanon,” in American University Law Review 33, 1: 145–161.
-
Gleditsch, Nils Petter and Ida Rudolfsen (2016). “Are Muslim countries more prone to violence.” Research and Politics 3, 2: 1–9.
-
Goodby, James (1996). “When war won out: Bosnian peace plans before Dayton.” International Negotiation 1, 3: 501–523.
-
Gowan, Richard (2013). “Kofi Annan, Syria and the Uses of Uncertainty in Mediation.” Stability: International Journal of Security and Development 2, 1: 1–6.
-
Gowan, Richard and Stephen J. Stedman (2018). “The International Regime for Treating Civil War, 1988–2017.” Daedalus 147, 1: 171–184.
-
Greig, J. Michael (2005). “Stepping into the fray: when do mediators mediate?” American Journal of Political Science 49, 2: 249–266.
-
Greig, J. Michael and Patrick M. Regan (2008). “When Do They Say Yes? An Analysis of the Willingness to Offer and Accept Mediation in Civil Wars.” International Studies Quarterly 52, 4: 759–781.
-
Greig, Michael (2001). “Moments of Opportunity: Recognizing Conditions of Ripeness for International Mediation between Enduring Rivals.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45, 6: 691–718.
-
Greig, Michael (2013). “Intractable Syria? Insights from the scholarly literature on the failure of mediation.” Penn State Journal of Law & International Affairs 2, 1: 48–56.
-
Greig, Michael J., and Paul F. Diehl (2012). International Mediation. Cambridge: Polity.
-
Haass, Richard N. (1990). Conflicts Unending: The United States and Regional Disputes. New Haven: Yale University Press.
-
Hampson, Fen (2004). “Can the UN still mediate?,” in Richard Price and Mark Zacher, editors, The United Nations and Global Security. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
-
Hellmüller, Sara (2020). “Meaning-Making in Peace-Making: The Inclusion Norm at the Interplay between the United Nations and Civil Society in the Syrian Peace Process.” Swiss Political Science Review 26, 4: 407–428.
-
Hellmüller, Sara and Marie-Joëlle Zahar. (2018) “Against the Odds: Civil Society in the Intra-Syrian Talks.” New York: International Peace Institute.
-
Hill, Tom (2015). “Kofi Annan’s Multilateral Strategy of Mediation and the Syrian Crisis: The Future of Peacemaking in a Multipolar World?” International Negotiation 20, 3: 444–478.
-
Hinnebusch, Raymond A. and Adham Saouli, eds. (2019). The War for Syria: Regional and International Dimensions of the Syrian Uprising. London: Routledge.
-
Hinnebusch, Raymond and I. William Zartman (2016). UN Mediation in the Syrian Crisis: From Kofi Annan to Lakhdar Brahimi. New York: International Peace Institute.
-
Howard, Lise Morjé and Alexandra Stark (2017/18). “How Civil Wars End. The International System, Norms, and the Role of External Actors.” International Security 42, 3: 122–171.
-
Jenne, Erin K. (2015). Nested Security: Lessons in Conflict Management from the League of Nations and the European Union. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
-
Jenne, Erin K., and Milos Popovic (2017). “Managing Internationalized Civil Wars.” Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics.
-
Jones, Bruce, and Stephen John Stedman (2017). “Civil Wars & the Post-Cold War International Order.” Daedalus 146, 4: 33–44.
-
Kane, Sean William (2020). “Making Peace When the Whole World Has Come to Fight: The Mediation of Internationalized Civil Wars.” International Peacekeeping Online First: 1–27.
-
Khatib, Line (2019). “Syria, Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E. and Qatar: the ‘sectarianization’ of the Syrian conflict and undermining of democratization in the region.” British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 46, 3: 385–403.
-
Kleiboer, Marieke (1996). “Understanding Success and Failure of International Mediation.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 40, 2: 360–389.
-
Kriesberg, Louis (1992). International Conflict Resolution. New Haven: Yale University Press.
-
Kriesberg, Louis, and Stuart Thorson, eds. (1991). Timing the De-escalation of International Conflicts. Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press.
-
Kydd, Andrew H. (2003). “Which side are you on? Bias, credibility and mediation.” American Journal of Political Science 47, 4: 597–611.
-
Lundgren, Magnus (2016). “Mediation in Syria: initiatives, strategies, and obstacles, 2011–2016.” Contemporary Security Policy 37, 2: 273–288.
-
Lundgren, Magnus (2019). “Mediation in Syria, 2016–2019: A tale of two processes.” At: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3507785.
-
Lundgren, Magnus and Isak Svensson (2014). “Leanings and Dealings: Exploring Bias and Trade Leverage in Civil War Mediation by International Organizations.” International Negotiation 19, 2: 315–342.
-
Lundgren, Magnus and Isak Svensson (2020). “The surprising decline of international mediation in armed conflicts.” Research and Politics 7, 2: 1–7.
-
Mancini, Francesco and Jose Vericat (2016). “Lost in Transition: UN Mediation in Libya, Syria, and Yemen.” New York: International Peace Institute.
-
Mason, Simon and Damiano Sguaitamatti (2011). Mapping Mediators: A comparison of third parties and implications for Switzerland. Zürich: Center for Security Studies.
-
Mason, T. David, Joseph P. Weingarten Jr. and Patrick J. Fett (1999). “Win, Lose, or Draw: Predicting the Outcome of Civil Wars.” Political Research Quarterly 52, 2: 239–268.
-
Maundi, Mohammed, Gilbert Khadiagala, Kwaku Nuemah, Saadia Touval and I. William Zartman (2000). Entry and Access in Mediation. Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace.
-
Maundi, Mohammed O., I. William Zartman, Gilbert M. Khadiagala and Kwaku Nuamah (2006). Getting in: Mediators’ Entry into the Settlement of African Conflicts. Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.
-
Melander, Erik, Therése Pettersson and Lotta Themnér (2016). “Organized violence, 1989–2015.” Journal of Peace Research 53, 5: 727–742.
-
Miall, Hugh (1992). The peacemakers. Peaceful settlements of disputes since 1945. London: Palgrave MacMillan.
-
Miall, Hugh, Oliver Ramsbotham, and Tom Woodhouse (1999). Contemporary Conflict Resolution. The prevention, management and transformation of deadly conflicts. Cambridge: Polity Press.
-
Mitchell, Christopher (1995). “The Right Moment: Notes on 4 Models of Ripeness.” Paradigms 9, 2: 35–52.
-
Moore, Christopher (1986). The Mediation Process: Practical Strategies for Resolving Conflict. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass Publishers.
-
Nathan, Laurie (2017). “Marching Orders: Exploring the Mediation Mandate.” African Security 10, 3: 155–175.
-
Pearlman, Wendy and Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham (2012). “Nonstate Actors, Fragmentation, and Conflict Processes.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 56, 1: 3–15.
-
Pettersson, Therése, Stina Högbladh and Magnus Öberg (2019). “Organized violence, 1989–2018 and peace agreements.” Journal of Peace Research 56, 4: 589–603.
-
Price, Megan, Jeff Klinger, Anas Qtiesh and Patrick Ball (2013). “Updated Statistical Analysis of Documentation of Killings in the Syrian Arab Republic.” New York: Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.
-
Princen, Thomas (1992). Intermediaries in International Conflict. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
-
Pruitt, Dean (2002). “Mediator Behavior and Success in Mediation,” in Jacob Bercovitch, editor, Studies in International Mediation. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.
-
Pruitt, Dean G. (2005). “Whither ripeness theory?” Washington DC: George Mason University.
-
Pruitt, Dean G. (2007). “Readiness theory and the Northern Ireland conflict.” American Behavioral Scientist 50, 11: 1520–1541.
-
Rasler, Karen (1983). “Internationalized Civil War: A Dynamic Analysis of the Syrian Intervention in Lebanon.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 27, 3: 421–456.
-
Rauchhaus, Robert W. (2006). “Asymmetric Information, Mediation, and Conflict Management.” World Politics 58, 2: 207–241.
-
Regan, Patrick M. (2000). Civil wars and foreign powers: Outside interventions and intrastate conflict. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
-
Regan, Patrick M. (2002). “Third-party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46, 1: 55–73.
-
Regan, Patrick M. and Allan C. Stam (2000). “In the nick of time: Conflict management, mediation timing, and the duration of interstate disputes.” International Studies Quarterly 44, 2: 239–260.
-
Richmond, Oliver (1998). “Devious Objectives and the Disputants’ View of International Mediation: A Theoretical Framework.” Journal of Peace Research 35, 6: 707–722.
-
Savun, Burcu (2008). “Information, bias, and mediation success.” International Studies Quarterly 52, 1: 25–47.
-
Savun, Burcu (2009). “Mediator Types and the Effectiveness of Information Provision Strategies in the Resolution of International Conflict,” in Jacob Bercovitch and Scott Gartner, editors, International Conflict Mediation: New Approaches and Findings. London: Routledge.
-
Sisk, Timothy (2009). International Mediation in Civil Wars: Bargaining with Bullets. New York: Routledge.
-
Smith, William P. (1985). “Effectiveness of the Biased Mediator.” Negotiation Journal 1, 4: 363–372.
-
Söderberg Kovacs, Mimmi (2020). “Negotiating Sacred Grounds? Resolving Islamist Armed Conflicts.” International Negotiation 25, 3: 1–14.
-
Stedman, Stephen John (1991). Peacemaking in Civil War: International Mediation in Zimbabwe, 1974–1980. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
-
Svensson, Isak (2007). “Bargaining, bias and peace brokers: How rebels commit to peace.” Journal of Peace Research 44, 2: 177–194.
-
Svensson, Isak (2009). “Who brings which peace? Biased versus neutral mediation and institutional peace arrangements in civil wars.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53, 3: 446–469.
-
Svensson, Isak, and Desirée Nilsson (2018). “Disputes over the divine: Introducing the religion and armed conflict (RELAC) data, 1975–2015.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 62, 5: 1127–1148.
-
Touval, Saadia (1975). “Biased intermediaries: Theoretical and historical considerations.” Jerusalem Journal of International Relations 1: 51–69.
-
United Nations (2012). “UN Guidance for Effective Mediation.” New York: United Nations.
-
Uppsala Conflict Data Program. “Uppsala Conflict Data Program.” Uppsala: Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University.
-
Vuković, Siniša (2015). “Soft Power, Bias and Manipulation of International Organizations in International Mediation.” International Negotiation 20, 3: 414–443.
-
Vuković, Siniša and Diane Bernabei (2019). “Refining Intractability: A Case Study of Entrapment in the Syrian Civil War.” International Negotiation 24, 3: 407–436.
-
Wall, James A., John B. Stark and Rhetta L. Standifer (2001). “Mediation: A Current Review and Theory Development.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45, 3: 370–391.
-
Wallensteen, Peter and Therése Pettersson (2015). “Armed Conflicts, 1946–2014.” Journal of Peace Research 52:4.
-
Wright, Quincy (1965). “The Escalation of International Conflicts.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 9, 4: 434–449.
-
Young, Oran R. (1967). The Intermediaries: Third Parties in International Crises. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
-
Zartman, I. William (1985). Ripe for Resolution: Conflict and Intervention in Africa. New York: Oxford University Press.
-
Zartman, I. William (2000). “Ripeness: The Hurting Stalemate and Beyond,” in Paul C. Stern and Daniel Druckman, editors, International Conflict Resolution After the Cold War. Washington DC: National Academy Press.
-
Zartman, I. William (2015). “Mediation: Ripeness and its Challenges in the Middle East.” International Negotiation 20, 3: 479–493.
| All Time | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract Views | 1942 | 388 | 49 |
| Full Text Views | 284 | 104 | 10 |
| PDF Views & Downloads | 548 | 201 | 18 |
The Challenge of Forging Consent to UN Mediation in Internationalized Civil Wars: The Case of Syria
In: International NegotiationSearch for other papers by Sara Hellmüller in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMed
Abstract
This article analyzes how the internationalization of civil wars influences conflict parties’ consent to UN mediation processes. Illustrated by the UN mediation in Syria, I argue that internationalization influences consent directly by obstructing the advent of a costly stalemate and the parties’ perception of mediation as a ‘way out,’ and indirectly by reducing mediators’ leverage and perceived impartiality thereby limiting their tools to foster consent. The article makes three contributions. First, it presents a novel conceptual framework to understand the impact of internationalization on conflict parties’ consent. Second, it provides a long-term analysis of UN mediation in Syria from 2012–2020. Third, it contributes to a broader discussion about how civil wars end. This is of particular relevance as the prioritization of a political over a military end to civil wars, which was dominant in the early post-Cold War period, is no longer unquestioned.
| All Time | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract Views | 1942 | 388 | 49 |
| Full Text Views | 284 | 104 | 10 |
| PDF Views & Downloads | 548 | 201 | 18 |