Historical Explanations Always Involve Counterfactual History
In: Journal of the Philosophy of HistoryHistorical explanations are a form of counterfactual history. To offer an explanation of what happened, historians have to identify causes, and whenever they identify causes, they immediately conjure up a counterfactual history, a parallel world. No one doubts that there is a great deal of distance between science fiction novelists and the world’s great historians, but along an important dimension, they are playing the same game.
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1
The best treatment is Jon Elster, Explaining Social Behavior (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).
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2
See Jon Elster, Logic and Society (Chichester: Wiley, 1978); David Lewis, On the Plurality of Worlds (Oxford: Blackwell, 1986).
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8
Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin, Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996).
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11
Robert Fogel, Railroads and American Economic Growth (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1964).
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Historical Explanations Always Involve Counterfactual History
In: Journal of the Philosophy of HistoryHistorical explanations are a form of counterfactual history. To offer an explanation of what happened, historians have to identify causes, and whenever they identify causes, they immediately conjure up a counterfactual history, a parallel world. No one doubts that there is a great deal of distance between science fiction novelists and the world’s great historians, but along an important dimension, they are playing the same game.
| All Time | Past Year | Past 30 Days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abstract Views | 1558 | 407 | 54 |
| Full Text Views | 772 | 357 | 29 |
| PDF Views & Downloads | 277 | 117 | 7 |