Historical Explanations Always Involve Counterfactual History

in Journal of the Philosophy of History
Author: Cass R. Sunstein 1
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1 Harvard University
Online Publication Date:
17 Nov 2016
Volume/Issue:
Volume 10: Issue 3
Article Type:
Research Article
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1163/18722636-12341345
Keywords:
counterfactuals; causation; probability; alternative history
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Historical explanations are a form of counterfactual history. To offer an explanation of what happened, historians have to identify causes, and whenever they identify causes, they immediately conjure up a counterfactual history, a parallel world. No one doubts that there is a great deal of distance between science fiction novelists and the world’s great historians, but along an important dimension, they are playing the same game.

Historical Explanations Always Involve Counterfactual History

in Journal of the Philosophy of History
E-ISSN:
1872-2636
Print ISSN:
1872-261X
Publisher:
BRILL
Cover Journal of the Philosophy of History

References

1

The best treatment is Jon ElsterExplaining Social Behavior (New York: Cambridge University Press2007).

2

See Jon ElsterLogic and Society (Chichester: Wiley1978); David Lewis On the Plurality of Worlds (Oxford: Blackwell 1986).

4

Jon ElsterLogic and Society176.

8

Philip Tetlock and Aaron BelkinCounterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press1996).

11

Robert FogelRailroads and American Economic Growth (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press1964).

Information

Page Count:
433–440
Subjects:
Medieval History, History, Early Modern History, History
Copyright:
© Koninklijke Brill NV, Leiden, The Netherlands 2016

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