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Mutual Gains or Exclusive Contests?

The Strategic Calculus of Japanese Firms on China’s CPTPP Bid

In: Law & Geoeconomics
Authors:
Jialu Li Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Government, Harvard University USA

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https://orcid.org/0009-0004-2352-9924
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Sayumi Miyano Associate Professor, Osaka University Osaka Japan

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https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9563-1056
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Abstract

Firms today must assess the impact of new trade policies within a complex global business landscape shaped by expanding global value chains and geopolitical risks. How do they respond to new trade policies under discussion? We argue that firms take informational cues from other firms in the same industry and along their supply chains. We test this through a survey experiment with Japanese firm managers, examining their reactions to China’s potential entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Our findings show that positive views from large co-industry firms and supply chain partners lead to negative assessments by managers, not only among small firms but also among large exporting firms, driven by fears of rising domestic competition. Concerns also extend to the broader national economic impact. The study contributes to our understanding of the micro-foundations of trade politics, highlighting firm heterogeneity in their response to multifaceted trade policies.

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