Regional Segment in the Demographic Processes in Kazakhstan in the Context of Cluster Division into Districts (1999-2009)

in Oriente Moderno
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The article looks at regional segment in the demographic processes in Kazakhstan during the decade of 1999-2009. The author uses method of cluster analysis to study demographic zones that includes specific weights of: a) Russian and Kazakh population in the total structure of the population, b) urban population in the total structure of population, c) people over 65, d) women of fertile age between 15 and 44, e) cumulative rate of natality, f) general mortality rate, g) rate of natural increase and h) crude marriage and divorce. These criteria enabled to distinguish several clusters using the concept of ‘ethnic and demographic area’ denoting a territory with relatively homogenous demography. Five clusters described comprise 1) Mangystau region, 2) region that includes East and North Kazakhstan with Akmola and Kokshetau, 3) South Kazakhstan with Atyrau and Kyzylorda, 4) Karaganda and Pavlodar regions (oblasts), 5) Aktobe, Almaty, Zhambyl and Western Kazakhstan region. Analysis of these areas made it possible to reveal their specific features. Differences between regions turned out to be substantial. While demographic situation in Mangystau and South Kazakhstan with Akmola and Kokshetau was favorable, demographic trends were negative in Eastern, Northern Kazakhstan and Akmola and Kokshetau regions as well as Karaganda and Pavlodar regions. Demographic trends in Aktobe, Almaty, Zhambyl regions and Western Kazakhstan can be characterized as transitional one from negative to positive extremes revealed between other two groups of clusters. The study of fertility in various regions of Kazakhstan allowed distinguishing two periods the first one being the 1989-1999s, when fertility declined dramatically and the period of its rise during the 1999-2009s. The article also discusses regional particularities of morality and reproduction in Kazakhstan, which are also determined by ethnic composition of these regions.