Outlook 2020: Results from a Real-Time Delphi Survey of Global Pentecostal Leaders

in Pneuma
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In the fall of 2011 a Real-time Delphi survey was conducted with members of Empowered21, entitled: “Outlook 2020: The future of Spirit-empowered Christianity.” The survey consisted of thirteen projections for the year 2020, ranging from positive statements, such as “The church will experience a fresh, historic outpouring of the Holy Spirit,” to negative ones, such as “There will be an increase of public moral failures among Spirit-empowered leaders.” Of the 132 members invited, 29 percent, or 38 participants completed the survey. Participants reached a consensus on eight of thirteen projections. The results show that Empowered21 leaders have high expectations for 2020 — that the church would experience a historic outpouring of the Holy Spirit, sustained by new leadership. Yet, this would be accompanied by an increasing divide between how emerging and established generations express their Spirit-empowered faith.

Outlook 2020: Results from a Real-Time Delphi Survey of Global Pentecostal Leaders

in Pneuma




Jay E. Gary“Toward a New Macrohistory: An Extension to Sardar’s ‘Postnormal Times,’” Futures 43 no. 1 (February 2011): 48-51.


T. Irene SandersStrategic Thinking and the New Science: Planning in the Midst of Chaos Complexity and Change (New York: Free Press1998) 111.


See Amos YongThe Spirit Poured Out on All Flesh: Pentecostalism and the Possibility of Global Theology (Grand Rapids, MI: Baker Academic2005) 10.


See Allan Anderson et al.Studying Global Pentecostalism: Theories and Methods (Berkeley: University of California Press2010).


See Todd M. Johnson“The Global Demographics of the Pentecostal and Charismatic Renewal,” Social Science and Modern Society 46 no. 6 (November-December 2009): 479-83; and Todd M. Johnson “The Global Demographics of the Pentecostal and Charismatic Renewal” in Spirit and Power: The Growth and Global Impact of Pentecostalism ed. Donald E. Miller Kimon H. Sergeant and Richard Flory (Oxford University Press forthcoming).


Gene Rowe and George Wright“The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool: Issues and Analysis,” International Journal of Forecasting 15 no. 4 (October-December 1999): 353-75.


See Andrew PerrimanFuture of the People of God: Reading Romans before and after Western Christendom (Eugene, OR: Cascade2010); David Edward Aune Prophecy in Early Christianity and the Ancient Mediterranean World (Grand Rapids MI: Eerdmans 1983). Historians place biblical revelation as one of five chronological layers of modern futures studies: divination revelation progressivism historicism and social science. See W. Warren Wagar The Next Three Futures: Paradigms of Things to Come (New York: Praeger 1991) 17-20.


See Jay Gary“The Future According to Jesus: A Galilean Model of Foresight,” Futures 40 no. 7 (September 2008): 630-42; and Thomas D. Hollinger “Revelation Foresight and Fortitude: How Awareness of the Future Affected the Early Church and How Their Past Might Influence Our Future” Journal of Biblical Perspectives in Leadership 3 no. 2 (Summer 2011): 48-59 http://www.regent.edu/acad/global/publications/jbpl/.


Richard A. Slaughter“Futures Studies as an Intellectual and Applied Discipline,” American Behavioral Scientist 42 no. 3 (November-December 1998): 372-86 at 382.


Chun Wei Choo and Nick Bontis“Environmental Scanning as Information Seeking and Organizational Learning,” Information Research 7 no. 1 (October 2001).


See Robert J. Sternberg“A Balance Theory of Wisdom,” Review of General Psychology 2 no. 4 (December 1998): 347-65.


Edward CornishFuturing: The Exploration of the Future (Bethesda, MD: World Future Society2004) and Wendell Bell “The Purposes of Futures Studies” Futurist 31 no. 6 (November-December 1997): 42-45.


Richard A. SlaughterFutures Beyond Dystopia: Creating Social Foresight (New York: RoutledgeFalmer2004) 146-47.


For exceptions see John RobertoFaith Formation 2020: Designing the Future of Faith Formation (Naugatuck, CT: LifelongFaith Associates2010) cf <http://www.faithformation2020.net/>; also Steve Brimmer ChurchFutures.com: The Home of Futurecasting. 2010 <http://www.churchfutures.com/>.


George BarnaFuturecast: What Today’s Trends Mean for Tomorrow’s World (Carol Stream, IL: BarnaBooks2011).


Todd M. Johnson and D. B. Barrett“Quantifying Alternate Futures of Religion and Religions,” Futures 36 no. 9 (November 2004): 947-60; cf World Christian Database 2011 Leiden Netherlands: Brill Online <http://www.worldchristiandatabase.org>.


Gary Hamel and C. K. Prahalad“Competing for the Future,” Harvard Business Review 72 no. 4 (July-August 1994): 122-28; Hugh Courtney Jane Kirkland and Patrick Viguerie “Strategy Under Uncertainty” Harvard Business Review 75 no. 6 (November-December 1997): 66-79; Michel Godet Philippe Durance and Adam Gerber Strategic Foresight: For Corporate and Regional Development trans. Adam Gerber (France: Dunod UNESCO and Fondation Prospective et Innovation 2011); http://en.laprospective.fr/books/10-strategic-foresight-for-corporate-and-regional-development.html


Ted Peters“The Terror of Time,” Dialog: A Journal of Theology 39 no. 1 (Spring 2000): 56-66.


Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer“An Experimental Application of the Delphi Method to the Use of Experts,” Management Science 9 no. 3 (April 1963): 458-67.


Harold A. Linstone and Murray TuroffThe Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications (Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley1975) 3.


Theodore Gordon and Adam Pease“RT Delphi: An Efficient, ‘Round-Less’ Almost Real Time Delphi Method,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 73 no. 4 (May 2006): 321-33.


Tobias Gnatzy et al.“Validating an Innovative Real-Time Delphi Approach: A Methodological Comparison Between Real-Time and Conventional Delphi Studies,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78 no. 9 (November 2011): 1681-94.


Tibbs“Making the Future Visible” 4.


By May 2011E21 adopted a planning horizon extending to 2020. In January 2012 they complemented this with a visionary horizon of 2033 — the date of the two-thousandth anniversary of Pentecost. For more on jubilee dynamics see Jay E. Gary The Star of 2000: Our Journey Toward Hope (Colorado Springs CO: Bimillennial 1994).


Rick Parente and Janet Anderson-Parente“Delphi Inquiry Systems,” in Judgmental Forecastinged. George Wright and Peter Ayton (New York: J. Wiley1987) 129-56.


Ibid. 1685Table 1.


Tibbs“Making the Future Visible” 4.


Tibbs“Making the Future Visible” 4.


C. Rick Snyder et al.“Hope Theory: Rainbows in the Mind,” Psychological Inquiry 13 no. 4 (2002): 249-75.


Donald E. Miller and Tetsunao YamamoriGlobal Pentecostalism: The New Face of Christian Social Engagement (Berkeley: University of California Press2007).


Gnatsky et al.“Validating an Innovative Real-Time Delphi Approach” 49-51.



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