Outlook 2020: Results from a Real-Time Delphi Survey of Global Pentecostal Leaders

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Abstract

In the fall of 2011 a Real-time Delphi survey was conducted with members of Empowered21, entitled: “Outlook 2020: The future of Spirit-empowered Christianity.” The survey consisted of thirteen projections for the year 2020, ranging from positive statements, such as “The church will experience a fresh, historic outpouring of the Holy Spirit,” to negative ones, such as “There will be an increase of public moral failures among Spirit-empowered leaders.” Of the 132 members invited, 29 percent, or 38 participants completed the survey. Participants reached a consensus on eight of thirteen projections. The results show that Empowered21 leaders have high expectations for 2020 — that the church would experience a historic outpouring of the Holy Spirit, sustained by new leadership. Yet, this would be accompanied by an increasing divide between how emerging and established generations express their Spirit-empowered faith.

Outlook 2020: Results from a Real-Time Delphi Survey of Global Pentecostal Leaders

in Pneuma

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References

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Jay E. Gary“Toward a New Macrohistory: An Extension to Sardar’s ‘Postnormal Times,’” Futures 43 no. 1 (February 2011): 48-51.

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See Amos YongThe Spirit Poured Out on All Flesh: Pentecostalism and the Possibility of Global Theology (Grand Rapids, MI: Baker Academic2005) 10.

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See Allan Anderson et al.Studying Global Pentecostalism: Theories and Methods (Berkeley: University of California Press2010).

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See Todd M. Johnson“The Global Demographics of the Pentecostal and Charismatic Renewal,” Social Science and Modern Society 46 no. 6 (November-December 2009): 479-83; and Todd M. Johnson “The Global Demographics of the Pentecostal and Charismatic Renewal” in Spirit and Power: The Growth and Global Impact of Pentecostalism ed. Donald E. Miller Kimon H. Sergeant and Richard Flory (Oxford University Press forthcoming).

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See Andrew PerrimanFuture of the People of God: Reading Romans before and after Western Christendom (Eugene, OR: Cascade2010); David Edward Aune Prophecy in Early Christianity and the Ancient Mediterranean World (Grand Rapids MI: Eerdmans 1983). Historians place biblical revelation as one of five chronological layers of modern futures studies: divination revelation progressivism historicism and social science. See W. Warren Wagar The Next Three Futures: Paradigms of Things to Come (New York: Praeger 1991) 17-20.

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See Jay Gary“The Future According to Jesus: A Galilean Model of Foresight,” Futures 40 no. 7 (September 2008): 630-42; and Thomas D. Hollinger “Revelation Foresight and Fortitude: How Awareness of the Future Affected the Early Church and How Their Past Might Influence Our Future” Journal of Biblical Perspectives in Leadership 3 no. 2 (Summer 2011): 48-59 http://www.regent.edu/acad/global/publications/jbpl/.

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For exceptions see John RobertoFaith Formation 2020: Designing the Future of Faith Formation (Naugatuck, CT: LifelongFaith Associates2010) cf <http://www.faithformation2020.net/>; also Steve Brimmer ChurchFutures.com: The Home of Futurecasting. 2010 <http://www.churchfutures.com/>.

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Tibbs“Making the Future Visible” 4.

43

By May 2011E21 adopted a planning horizon extending to 2020. In January 2012 they complemented this with a visionary horizon of 2033 — the date of the two-thousandth anniversary of Pentecost. For more on jubilee dynamics see Jay E. Gary The Star of 2000: Our Journey Toward Hope (Colorado Springs CO: Bimillennial 1994).

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Rick Parente and Janet Anderson-Parente“Delphi Inquiry Systems,” in Judgmental Forecastinged. George Wright and Peter Ayton (New York: J. Wiley1987) 129-56.

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Ibid. 1685Table 1.

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Tibbs“Making the Future Visible” 4.

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Tibbs“Making the Future Visible” 4.

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C. Rick Snyder et al.“Hope Theory: Rainbows in the Mind,” Psychological Inquiry 13 no. 4 (2002): 249-75.

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Donald E. Miller and Tetsunao YamamoriGlobal Pentecostalism: The New Face of Christian Social Engagement (Berkeley: University of California Press2007).

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Gnatsky et al.“Validating an Innovative Real-Time Delphi Approach” 49-51.

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