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Abstract
The European Union (EU) plays a facilitating role in the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia. The EU has applied a proactive approach to normalization through several agreements, initially of a technical and later of a political nature. This gradual approach has produced a relative success in the easing of relations between the parties and in creating the conditions for a final agreement, which, however, still remains far from being reached. The main argument of this article is that both sides hold diametrically opposed positions and the EU still remains a powerless actor in pushing the parties to find a long-term solution to the conflict between them.
Abstract
This article proposes a new theoretical framework based on conflict escalation theory and the concept of critical junctures to facilitate a more transparent analysis of the war in Ukraine’s Donbas. It argues that researchers have proposed a variety of causes of the outbreak of violence in the region. However, in the absence of an overarching theoretical framework, it remains difficult to analyse the interplay of these causes and compare their explanatory power. In response, this article develops a theory-guided escalation sequence model. According to this model, the conflict’s formative phase consisted of an escalation sequence that lasted from April until August 2014 and comprised six critical junctures. This article argues that attempts to explain the conflict should be evaluated and compared in terms of their ability to explain these critical junctures. It concludes that similar escalation sequence models could improve research on armed conflict beyond the case of the Donbas.