Will malaria return to North-West Europe?
In: Emerging pests and vector-borne diseases in EuropeSearch for other papers by Willem Takken in
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Historically, malaria was widespread in Europe, reaching as far north as the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and even Sweden and Finland. In southern Europe, malaria was caused by Plasmodium falciparum, P. vivax and P. malariae, but further north only the latter two parasite species were found. The main vector species was Anopheles atroparvus Van Thiel, although An. messeae Falleroni was suspected to be a vector in Central Europe and Scandinavia. The disease was eradicated from Europe in the second half of the 20th century with DDT and modern drugs. In spite of a near-constant and large number of cases of imported malaria, as well as the proven presence of anopheline vectors, the return of local malaria transmission has not been observed, presumably because of a lack of a sufficiently dense cluster of parasite carriers and an efficient health care system that is able to diagnose and treat malaria patients successfully. It is considered whether climate change might alter this situation, allowing for higher mosquito densities and more favourable environmental conditions for Plasmodium development in the mosquito vectors. We argue that under climate change, causing higher temperatures and intensified precipitation, conditions for local malaria transmission will improve, but that the public health measures will preclude the building up of an infectious parasite reservoir. So people might be exposed to more mosquito bites, but the chance of such mosquitoes becoming infected with malaria parasites will not alter significantly compared to the current situation. Therefore, climate change is unlikely to affect the malaria-free state of North-West Europe.