Search Results
This article chapter provides an overview of major political developments, socioeconomic-economic trends, and issues of regional importance in Eastern Africa during the year under review. It describes the strategies and economic recovery trajectories in the second year of the Covid-19 pandemic. Overall, economies in the sub- region showed promising signs of recovery, while conflict dynamics, especially across the Horn of Africa, contributed to growing instability. The article chapter also evaluates the state of democracy and elections, the state and causes of armed conflicts, ecological issues, and challenges related to regional economic integration.
Comoros covers domestic politics, foreign policy and socioeconomic developments in the calendar year 2021. Increasing public sector expenditure and the public health emergency continued to affect economic performance, albeit less severely than in the first year of the pandemic. Political trajectories were still shaped by the controversial 2018 referendum and the 2019 presidential elections, which put president Azali Assoumani into power until 2024. The space for the opposition and free speech remained limited, including growing restrictions on press freedom. Migration, maritime security, and the threat of climate change defined Comoro’s foreign policy agenda.
Encouraging signs of peace and reconciliation were overshadowed by open conflict and a deteriorating security environment across large parts of the sub-region. But not all was dim, for instance, the prospects for Sudan to harness the dividends of the revolution were promising and a new transition government in South Sudan restored hope. The first half of the year was characterised by governments’ uphill battle to halt the spread of the coronavirus and absorb the immediate socioeconomic repercussions of the pandemic. Key sectors such as tourism, hospitality, and air transport were hit the hardest. Government revenue dropped and debt increased, along with inflationary pressure, shattering generally hopeful developments of recent years. Overall growth contracted by 4.6% and averaged 0.7%. While the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted public life, affected economic performance, and threatened livelihoods, in addition to that, Eastern Africa experienced intense weather extremes. Floods and landslides affected at least 4 m people in the second half of the year in at least eight countries of the region, as well as bordering eastern drc. Moreover, no end was in sight to the desert locust infestation that had been ravaging especially Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya since the end of 2019. This ‘triple shock’ further weakened food security. Growing numbers of idps and refugees put more pressure on hosting nations such as Sudan, where more than 50,000 people from conflict-ridden northern Ethiopia sought refuge from November onwards. The multi-actor war in Tigray, which besides federal and regional troops reportedly also involved Eritrean forces on Ethiopian soil, threatened stability across the Horn of Africa and could end in a dangerous stalemate. Negotiations between the three riparian states of the Blue Nile over the use of the river’s waters stalled again, while visible progress on upstream dam construction was reported. Elections that were held despite the public health crisis did not bring notable political changes except in Ethiopia, with the unilateral decision of Tigray to go to the polls that triggered the ongoing war. On the contrary, the year saw increased levels of repressive legislation against the media and an increasingly limited space for opposition groups in many countries. Looking ahead, post-pandemic recovery plans will provide an opportunity to initiate deep economic reforms in Eastern Africa. However, economic recovery will be slow, and substantial additional financing, especially from the private sector, will be needed to adapt existing growth models to novel configurations of global value chains.
Following decades of institutional instability since 1975, the Union of the Comoros remained politically stable under the leadership of President Azali Assoumani. The restructuring of ministerial portfolios in the first half of the year helped to consolidate the incumbent’s position prior to the 2024 presidential elections. The National Inter-Comorian Dialogue launched by the government did not create a broad-based political consensus, as major opposition forces refused to participate. Relations with France continued to be cordial but were increasingly tense over the island of Mayotte and growing illegal migration. Comoros voted in favour of the UN resolution to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine and cemented relations with China and Saudi Arabia. As a highly import-dependent economy with limited exports, Comoros was directly affected by global disruptions due to the Russia–Ukraine war. Inflation reached record high levels, while economic growth showed positive signs.
The civil war in Africa’s second-most-populous nation, Ethiopia, escalated further, and international attention on the sub-region was mainly focused on the armed conflict in Ethiopia’s northern region. The military coup in Sudan, the failed negotiations surrounding Somalia’s electoral process, and growing instability across the Horn of Africa shaped Eastern Africa’s trajectories in 2021. Ethiopia completed the second phase of filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (gerd) at the Blue Nile. By year’s end, no binding agreement between the three riparian nation states Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt had been reached, and tensions remained high.