Author: Corneliu Bjola

Summary

This article invites diplomatic scholars to a debate about the identity of diplomacy as a field of study and the contributions that it can make to our understanding of world politics relative to international relations theory (IR) or foreign policy analysis (FPA). To this end, the article argues that the study of diplomacy as a method of building and managing relationships of enmity and friendship in world politics can most successfully firm up the identity of the discipline. More specifically, diplomacy offers a specialized form of knowledge for understanding how to draw distinctions between potential allies versus rivals, and how to make and unmake relationships of enmity and friendship in world politics.

In: The Hague Journal of Diplomacy
Author: Corneliu Bjola

Drawing on the literature of technical analysis in financial markets, this article introduces an original framework and methodology for explaining and forecasting the outcome of international negotiations based on two concepts: the relative strength negotiation index (rsni) and the negotiation contextual conduciveness index (ncci). By comparing the parties’ levels of interest in the negotiations, rsni serves as a powerful indicator of the direction and intensity of the momentum accompanying international negotiations. ncci, on the other hand, helps to explain why certain potential breakthroughs may fail to materialize. These insights are being asessed empirically in the case of climate change negotiations, first, by testing retrospectively the viability of the model to explain the outcomes of past climate meetings and, second, by forecasting the likelihood that a breakthrough will be achieved in the next rounds of climate talks.

In: International Negotiation
Author: Corneliu Bjola

Abstract

The article addresses an important gap in the literature on climate negotiations, namely, the question of breakthroughs: what exactly counts as breakthroughs in climate negotiations, how do you measure them empirically, and what practical implications do they have for the negotiation process? To address these questions, the article draws on market trading theory and develops a framework of negotiation breakthrough analysis for defining, recognizing and measuring negotiation breakthroughs. The article argues that breakthroughs in climate negotiations occur when the outcomes breach the resistance or support level of parties’ expectations regarding the results of climate talks. It concludes with a discussion of the broader contributions that technical analysis can make to the theory and practice of international negotiations.

In: International Negotiation

The objective of this forum is to provide a framework for intellectual exchange and debate about the role of diplomacy in negotiating global crises and the impact of such crises on the evolution of diplomatic leadership, identity and method. Drawing on theories of leadership, decision-making, power and crisis management, the five contributions to this forum invite readers to reflect upon the analytical implications of theorizing crisis diplomacy.

In: The Hague Journal of Diplomacy

Summary

As data fast become the ‘new oil’, the opportunities for public diplomacy to grow as a field of practice are real and game-changing. Drawing on social informatics research, this article seeks to advance our understanding of how digital technologies shape the context in which public diplomacy operates by reshaping the medium of public communication, blurring the boundary between foreign and domestic affairs and empowering new actors. Despite inevitable challenges, the future of public diplomacy in the digital age remains bright, as digital technologies create tremendous opportunities for public diplomacy to build stronger, more diverse and more enduring bridges between offline and online communities.

In: Debating Public Diplomacy

Summary

As data fast become the ‘new oil’, the opportunities for public diplomacy to grow as a field of practice are real and game-changing. Drawing on social informatics research, this article seeks to advance our understanding of how digital technologies shape the context in which public diplomacy operates by reshaping the medium of public communication, blurring the boundary between foreign and domestic affairs and empowering new actors. Despite inevitable challenges, the future of public diplomacy in the digital age remains bright, as digital technologies create tremendous opportunities for public diplomacy to build stronger, more diverse and more enduring bridges between offline and online communities.

In: The Hague Journal of Diplomacy

Summary

The corona crisis is also a disinformation crisis for the global community in general, and for the European Union (EU) in particular. What is less clear is how adequate the EU’s response to the ‘infodemic’ has been. This essay exposes the dangers of disinformation for the EU, which have intensified in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and reviews relevant EU responses. It then zooms in on two challenges exacerbated by the corona crisis: one internal, revolving around the toxic effect of conspiracy theories, particularly the corona-5G hoax; and one external, relating to the public diplomacy campaigns of competing geopolitical actors, especially China. The essay argues that the future of European stability will rest not only on ensuring societal resilience to disinformation and conspiracy theories but also on designing ethically guided pre-emptive mechanisms and confronting external sources of disinformation which jeopardise European health provisions, economic recovery and geoeconomic strength.

In: The Hague Journal of Diplomacy