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Abstract
The Lake Naivasha Basin has witnessed tremendous ecological, social, and economic changes at least since the 1980s, when the floriculture industry expanded around the lake. Land-use changes are marked by competition between agricultural intensification – with reference to floriculture and smallholder cultivation – and conservation. On the fringes of the lake, massive subdivision, privatization, and commercialization of land has attracted more settlers and prompted the growth of vibrant small and medium-sized enterprises and settlements. Water uptake from the lake has also increased over time due to rising demand from a growing population. Recently, the state proposed a variety of megaprojects within the basin, drawing from aspirations contained in Kenya’s development plans including Vision 2030 and the Big 4 Agenda. These include construction of a mega-dam at the Malewa River, development of Naivasha as an industrial city (Special Economic Zone), construction of a dual carriageway, construction of an Inland Container Depot joining a standard gauge railway, expansion of geothermal exploration, and development of ICT and housing infrastructure. Some of these projects are at the implementation stage while others still remain on paper. This chapter focuses on the social-ecological implications of these megaprojects. It shows how political aspirations and development visions conjoin to produce uncertainties and fears, but also hopes, at the local level. In addition to analysis of secondary sources that include blueprint plans for these projects, the chapter relies on the authors’ in-depth knowledge and experiences due to their connection to the study area as well as observational data on the changes these projects inspire before and during implementation.
Abstract
The cut-flower and horticulture industry at Lake Naivasha has been witness to numerous unexpected and predictable crises in the last decade. The most notable of these include fluctuation of lake levels, the global economic crisis between 2008 and 2010, volcanic activity that disrupted airfreight across Europe in 2010, and shortage of inputs like fertilisers. However, the COVID-19 pandemic was unprecedented; it caught many off-guard and thus defied any form of preparation. In this chapter, we explore the social-economic effects of COVID-19 containment measures on the sensitive industry, the lessons learned, and different strategies that industry actors have deployed to prepare for the future. We approach these questions from the conceptual lenses of risk, uncertainty, and preparing for the future. We observe that exposure to risks and uncertainty plays an increasingly important role in the industry’s consciousness of the unknown and informs deliberate actions aimed at “controlling” the future.