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Nicholas Wasonga Orago

management; climate monitoring, prediction and early warning; and mainstreaming climate information in key sectors. 43 As 90% of disaster risks in its sub-region are climate-related, igad has established the igad Climate Prediction and Application Centre ( icpac ) charged with the mandate of

Flavia Zorzi Giustiniani

and intensity are dramatically growing also as a consequence of climate change, as well as armed conflicts are affecting more and more urban areas. All this happens in an age of increasing and unstoppable urbanization, with the prediction that by 2050 more than two-thirds of the world’s population

Silvia Venier

of hazard monitoring, forecasting and prediction, disaster risk assessment, communication and preparedness activities systems and processes that enables individuals, communities, governments, business and others to take timely action to reduce disaster risk in advance of hazardous events’. 9

David Fisher

, therefore, a new apex disaster treaty would not only address current issues but also take account of trends that are likely to substantially transform how operations are carried out. While it is a tall order to expect consensus on predictions for the future in diplomatic negotiations, it is nevertheless

Harm Hazewinkel

predicted that 2010 would be a fascinating year. We have not been disappointed. Of course, the fact that for the first time one of the Central Asian participating States would assume the Chairmanship-in-Office, and that after some lengthy discussion, already warranted such a prediction. But at that moment

Arie Bloed

hardly allows for an effective observation exercise. Although the predictions are that Putin will ‘easily’ win these elections, much will depend upon the final figures in view of the growing public resistance against him. And much will also depend upon the size and nature of the irregularities that may

Sico van der Meer

been in the last 65 years? Pessimistic forecasts Since the invention and first use of nuclear weapons, predictions on the spread of these weapons have been traditionally pessimistic. Especially during the Cold War, from 1945 to 1991, the persistent pessimism among experts and policymakers is — with the

Lars-Erik Lundin

the restrictive measures, the oil price and non-decisions to cooperate may already be devastating in a medium-term perspective. In the first months of the sanctions directed against Russia economists competed in projecting a wide range of different results. 25 The most optimistic predictions on

Marieke Liem and Jan Maarten Elbers

’, in Criminology , no. 3, 1991, pp. 329–366. 33 M. Kurleychek, R. Brame, and S.D. Bushway, ‘Scarlet Letters and Recidivism: Does an Old Criminal Record Predict Offending?’ in Criminology and Public Policy , no. 5, 2007, pp. 483–504; ‘Enduring Risk? Old Criminal Records and Predictions of Future