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Kristian Coates Ulrichsen

constituted a revolutionary wave, the reasons for the contagion effect in Tunisia and Egypt, the impact of the upheaval on weak states, the reasons why Algeria escaped major unrest while Syria did not, contrary to the predictions of most regional observers, the brittle resilience of the Gulf monarchies, and a

Miquel Pellicer, Eva Wegner and Francesco Cavatorta

. In this article, we argue that the failure to predict historical events is not the right critique to area studies: the goal of social science is not really prediction but analysing and attempting to explain important social and political phenomena. In turn, we argue that area studies tend to

Wendy Pearlman

this juncture because the astonishing character of the revolts and the panoply of changes that they continue to unleash give us pause about holding prediction as the goal of research. After having failed to foresee cataclysmic events in the region, it might not be wise to rush to forecast what will

Richard W. Bulliet

. Yet there weren’t any other books at that time, either fiction or non-fiction, describing a clergy-led revolt against the Shah. Prediction is surely too grandiose a term, but I did feel that what was going on in Iran was both understandable and linked to movements that had not yet gained equivalent

Marc Lynch

armed camps or the sites of violent conflict. This mirrors the experience of the Iraqi refugee crisis, where alarmist predictions of conflict spillover and refugee violence largely failed to materialize. 12 This raises an intriguing question which reverses popular stereotypes: is there something

Hussein Hassan

person."(' Fried, however, in keeping with his general approach sees the wrong to be a wrong to the institution. Warnock argues that promises are statements about the way in which the promisor will act in the future. They are therefore predictions of a special kind in that they contain an assertion by

Yusuf Mohammed Gassim Obeidat

perhaps the exact opposite of good faith’, and therefore, should be ‘put to rest’. 2 The theory of efficient breach is deeply rooted in common law. As Oliver Wendell Holmes said: 3 The duty to keep a contract at common law means a prediction that you must pay damages if you do not keep it—and nothing

Jane Kinninmont

governments are looking for a guide to action, they have a particular need for forward-looking analysis: short to medium term predictions, future scenarios and risk analyses. By contrast, some academics prefer to avoid speculation and forecasting, given uncertainty and the likelihood of being wrong

Amr Daoud Marar

a dual ALQ 20,4_f4_389-399II 11/20/06 8:39 PM Page 389 390 amr daoud marar 3 F. Vogel, “Islamic Governance in the Gulf: A Framework for Analysis, Comparison, and Prediction”, in The Persian Gulf at the Millennium: Essays in Politics, Economy, Security, and Religion (Gary Sick et. al eds

Carolyn Barnett

expertise shows. The authors focus on describing how the uprisings came about, or on complicating overly simplistic narratives of those uprisings, rather than on sorting successes from failures. They do not present predictions of what will happen when this all shakes out. Instead, they point to dynamics of