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Weakened Machine Politics and the Consolidation of a Populist Regime?

Contextualization of the 2016 Duma Election

Atsushi Ogushi

Introduction Vladimir Putin was able to revive his popularity after the Ukrainian crisis, and so far he has been able to sustain his greater popularity. The 2016 Duma election gave the United Russia party a constitutional majority that is widely acknowledged as an indicating approval of Putin

Ian McAllister and Stephen White

in Table 3 ; here the units of analysis are the 85 federal subjects (regions) that existed at the time of the 2016 election. 51 Second, we apply multilevel modelling techniques to the 2016 Duma election survey to evaluate the impact of regional turnout, net of the respondent’s individual

Alexander Kynev

The article analyses how the electoral policy of the Russian state predetermined the results of the 2016 State Duma elections. The factors leading to this predictability are described in detail. These were a combination of the introduction of a mixed electoral system, with the party of power winning in more than 90% of majoritarian districts in regional elections; gerrymandering during the establishment of electoral districts; changes to the system by which voters outside the borders of the Russian Federation were allocated to electoral districts; the change of election date (moving it to September) and the consequent reduced turnout in the cities more prone to protest votes; “rigged campaigns” and the systemic opposition’s unreadiness for serious disputation; new bans and restrictions on political competition, resulting parties and candidates capable of genuinely opposing the regime being denied access to the elections; a push among protest voters to boycott the election, de facto supported by the regime’s campaign managers; and weak campaigns by the democratic parties.

Paul Robinson Volume 2, No. 3 Articles Classification of Russian Parties  255 Yury Korgunyuk Weakened Machine Politics and the Consolidation of a Populist Regime? Contextualization of the 2016 Duma Election  287 Atsushi Ogushi

Yury Korgunyuk

‘administrative resource’). All these parties, except of Patriots of Russia, got more than 1% votes in the 2016 Duma election by party lists ( pr received 0,59%). All six parties have deputies in regional legislatures but drastically less that ‘old parliamentary’ ones: from 2 (Communists of Russia) to 33

Derek Hutcheson and Ian McAllister

(herself, Grigorii Yavlinksy and Boris Titov) had won just 3.5 percent of the vote among them. Despite effectively being declared a “one horse race”, turnout was a respectable 67.5 percent. This was higher than in 2012, and also considerably higher than the 47.9 percent recorded in the 2016 Duma election

Max Bader

the desired results’ in regional and municipal elections. 9 Moreover, it seems likely that early voting will be used extensively in the upcoming 2016 Duma election and 2018 presidential elections. The article draws on a dataset, compiled by the author, of all 4,467 electoral races between the federal

Max Bader

borders of the tec area coincide with that of the city boundary), and 26 tec s are in the 26 rural districts of the region. Each district is limited in size and considerably homogenous. There were 2,820 tec s and 96,869 polling stations in the 2016 Duma election. As noted, calculations by Russian