With the increase of food demand in China and the growth of world population, whether China can meet her peak food demand in the future or not has become an issue worth study. By consolidating relevant factors of food demand in China, the peak food demand is predicted to occur in 2036, and the peak food demand amount is predicted at 758.17 million tons by factor and synthetical analysis. Through factor consolidation and scenario test, the following policy implications have been unearthed: China’s food production capability is crucial to maintain her future food security; improving the gain yield is the key method; monitoring China’s population change and formulating appropriate population policies are important; reducing food waste, curbing unreasonable consumption and promoting healthy and green diet are needed; construction of high standard farmland will be significant in maintaining the food security; and excessive stored food should be de-stocked in a timely manner.
Anderson, K. and A. Strutt. 2014. Food security policy options for China: lessons from other countries. Food Policy 49: 50-58.
'Food security policy options for China: lessons from other countries ' () 49 Food Policy : 50 -58.
Bai, J.F., S. Min, H.G. Qiu and X.B. Wang. 2014. Impact of population aging on China’s meat consumption. China Soft Science 11: 17-26.
'Impact of population aging on China’s meat consumption ' () 11 China Soft Science : 17 -26.
Brown, L.R. 1995. Who will feed China? Wake-up call for a small planet. London England Earthscan Publications, London, UK.
'Who will feed China? Wake-up call for a small planet', ().
Burkle, L.A., C.M. Delphia and K.M. O’Neill. 2017. A dual role for farmlands: food security and pollinator conservation. Journal of Ecology 105(4): 890-899.
'A dual role for farmlands: food security and pollinator conservation ' () 105 Journal of Ecology : 890 -899.
Cao, S., Y. Lv, H. Zheng and X. Wang. 2014. Challenges facing China’s unbalanced urbanization strategy. Land Use Policy 39(39): 412-415.
'Challenges facing China’s unbalanced urbanization strategy ' () 39 Land Use Policy : 412 -415.
Chen, J. 2007. Rapid urbanization in China: a real challenge to soil protection and food security. Catena 69(1): 1-15.
'Rapid urbanization in China: a real challenge to soil protection and food security ' () 69 Catena : 1 -15.
Chen, S. and L.I. Xiufeng. 2014. Research on the grain producers around the year of Chinese population peak. Asian Agricultural Research 6(12): 14-17.
'Research on the grain producers around the year of Chinese population peak ' () 6 Asian Agricultural Research : 14 -17.
Chen, Y.J., Y.I. Xiaoyan, L.N. Fang and R.Z. Yang. 2016. Analysis of cultivated land and grain production potential in China. Scientia Agricultura Sinica 49(6): 1117-1131.
'Analysis of cultivated land and grain production potential in China ' () 49 Scientia Agricultura Sinica : 1117 -1131.
Chodur, G.M., X. Zhao, E. Biehl, J. Mitrani-Reiser and R. Neff. 2018. Assessing food system vulnerabilities: a fault tree modeling approach. BMC public health 18(1): 817-827.
'Assessing food system vulnerabilities: a fault tree modeling approach ' () 18 BMC public health : 817 -827.
Clapp, J. 2017. Food self-sufficiency: making sense of it, and when it makes sense. Food Policy 66: 88-96. Cui, Z., Z. Dou, X. Chen, X. Ju and F. Zhang. 1952. Managing agricultural nutrients for food security in China: past, present, and future. Agronomy Journal 106(1): 191.
'Food self-sufficiency: making sense of it, and when it makes sense ' () 106 Agronomy Journal : 191 .
Dazhuan, G.E., H. Long, Y. Zhang and T.U. Shuangshuang. 2017. Pattern and coupling relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes at county level in China. Acta Geographica Sinica 72(6): 1063-1077.
'Pattern and coupling relationship between grain yield and agricultural labor changes at county level in China ' () 72 Acta Geographica Sinica : 1063 -1077.
Deng, X., J. Huang, S. Rozelle, J. Zhang and Z. Li. 2015. Impact of urbanization on arable land changes in China. Land Use Policy 45(45): 1-7.
'Impact of urbanization on arable land changes in China ' () 45 Land Use Policy : 1 -7.
Diouf, J. 2009. FAO’s director-general on how to feed the world in 2050. Population & Development Review 35(4): 837-839.
'FAO’s director-general on how to feed the world in 2050 ' () 35 Population & Development Review : 837 -839.
Du, T., S. Kang, X. Zhang and J. Zhang. 2014. China’s food security is threatened by the unsustainable use of water resources in North and Northwest China. Food and Energy Security 3(1): 7-18.
'China’s food security is threatened by the unsustainable use of water resources in North and Northwest China ' () 3 Food and Energy Security : 7 -18.
Fang, F. and S. Cheng. 2009. Rice production capacity in China. Chinese Journal of Rice Science 23(6): 559-566.
'Rice production capacity in China ' () 23 Chinese Journal of Rice Science : 559 -566.
Feng, Q., W.J.J. Yeung, Z. Wang and Y. Zeng. 2018. Age of retirement and human capital in an aging China, 2015-2050. European Journal of Population 1: 1-34.
'Age of retirement and human capital in an aging China, 2015-2050 ' () 1 European Journal of Population : 1 -34.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2017. Cereal yield (kg per hectare). FAO, Rome, Italy. Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.YLD.CREL.KG
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2019. World food situation. FAO, Rome, Italy. Available at: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/?fb_=
Fujimori, S., T. Hasegawa, T. Masui and K. Takahashi. 2014. Land use representation in a global CGE model for long-term simulation: Cet vs. Logit functions. Food Security 6(5): 685-699.
'Land use representation in a global CGE model for long-term simulation: Cet vs ' () 6 Food Security : 685 -699.
Fukase, E. and W. Martin. 2016. Who will feed China in the 21st century? Income growth and food demand and supply in China. Journal of Agricultural Economics 67(1): 3-23.
'Who will feed China in the 21st century? ' () 67 Journal of Agricultural Economics : 3 -23.
Gandhi, V.P. and Z. Zhou. 2014. Food demand and the food security challenge with rapid economic growth in the emerging economies of India and China. Food Research International 63: 108-124.
'Food demand and the food security challenge with rapid economic growth in the emerging economies of India and China ' () 63 Food Research International : 108 -124.
Gao, C.L. and H.K. Wei. 2013. Prediction study on the urbanization trends of China. Modern Economic Science 35(4): 85-90.
'Prediction study on the urbanization trends of China ' () 35 Modern Economic Science : 85 -90.
Ghose, B. 2014. Food security and food self-sufficiency in China: from past to 2050. Food and Energy Security 3(2): 86-95.
'Food security and food self-sufficiency in China: from past to 2050 ' () 3 Food and Energy Security : 86 -95.
Godrich, S.L., J. Lo, C.R. Davies, J. Darby and A. Devine. 2017. Which food security determinants predict adequate vegetable consumption among rural western Australian children? International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 14(1): 40-41.
'Which food security determinants predict adequate vegetable consumption among rural western Australian children? ' () 14 International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health : 40 -41.
Gregory, V., 2013. China’s food security: past success and future challenges. Eurasian Geography & Economics 54(1): 42-56.
'China’s food security: past success and future challenges ' () 54 Eurasian Geography & Economics : 42 -56.
Gu, C.L., W.H. Guan and H.L. Liu. 2017. Chinese urbanization 2050: SD modeling and process simulation. Science China Earth Sciences 60(6): 1-16.
'Chinese urbanization 2050: SD modeling and process simulation ' () 60 Science China Earth Sciences : 1 -16.
He, C., Z. Liu, M. Xu, Q. Ma and Y. Dou. 2017. Urban expansion brought stress to food security in China: evidence from decreased cropland net primary productivity. Science of the Total Environment 576: 660-670.
'Urban expansion brought stress to food security in China: evidence from decreased cropland net primary productivity ' () 576 Science of the Total Environment : 660 -670.
Huang, J. and G. Yang. 2017. Understanding recent challenges and new food policy in China. Global Food Security 12: 119-126.
'Understanding recent challenges and new food policy in China ' () 12 Global Food Security : 119 -126.
Jiang, Y. 2015. China’s water security: current status, emerging challenges and future prospects. Environmental Science & Policy 54: 106-125.
'China’s water security: current status, emerging challenges and future prospects ' () 54 Environmental Science & Policy : 106 -125.
Liang, Y., J. Zhou, Q. Yang and H. Huang. 2016. Development status, function and prospect analysis of the multiple cropping in southern China. Crop Research 30(5): 572-578.
'Development status, function and prospect analysis of the multiple cropping in southern China ' () 30 Crop Research : 572 -578.
Lipton, M. and Y. Saghai. 2017. Food security, farmland access ethics, and land reform. Global Food Security 12: 59-66.
'Food security, farmland access ethics, and land reform ' () 12 Global Food Security : 59 -66.
Liu, P. 2016. The analysis on the trend and influencing factors of dietary patterns of inhabitants in China. PhD-thesis, Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, Shanxi, China.
'The analysis on the trend and influencing factors of dietary patterns of inhabitants in China', ().
Liu, Q., X. Liu and S. Wang. 2018a. Estimating China’s food grains demand from 2020 to 2050 based on reasonable dietary pattern. Systems Engineering – Theory & Practice 38(3): 615-622.
'Estimating China’s food grains demand from 2020 to 2050 based on reasonable dietary pattern ' () 38 Systems Engineering – Theory & Practice : 615 -622.
Liu, X., H. Shi and S.O. Statistics, 2017. Analysis of population structure in China under the universal two-child policy. Statistics & Decision 8: 77-80.
'Analysis of population structure in China under the universal two-child policy ' () 8 Statistics & Decision : 77 -80.
Liu, Y., C. Wang, Z. Tang and Z. Nan. 2018b. Will farmland transfer reduce grain acreage? Evidence from Gansu province, China. China Agricultural Economic Review 10(2): 277-292.
'Will farmland transfer reduce grain acreage? Evidence from Gansu province, China ' () 10 China Agricultural Economic Review : 277 -292.
Ma, Y.P., L.L. Sun, E. Yh and W. Wu. 2015. Predicting the impact of climate change in the next 40 years on the yield of maize in China. The Journal of Applied Ecology 26(1): 224.
'Predicting the impact of climate change in the next 40 years on the yield of maize in China ' () 26 The Journal of Applied Ecology : 224 .
Min, S., H. Waibel and J. Huang. 2017. Smallholder participation in the land rental market in a mountainous region of Southern China: impact of population aging, land tenure security and ethnicity. Land Use Policy 68: 625-637.
'Smallholder participation in the land rental market in a mountainous region of Southern China: impact of population aging, land tenure security and ethnicity ' () 68 Land Use Policy : 625 -637.
Nath, R., Y. Luan, W. Yang, C. Yang, W. Chen and Q. Li. 2015. Changes in arable land demand for food in India and China: a potential threat to food security. Sustainability 7: 5371-5397.
'Changes in arable land demand for food in India and China: a potential threat to food security ' () 7 Sustainability : 5371 -5397.
Peng, G.J., M.H. Chang, M. Fang, C.D. Liao, C.F. Tsai and S.H. Tseng. 2017. Incidents of major food adulteration in Taiwan between 2011 and 2015. Food Control 72: 145-152.
'Incidents of major food adulteration in Taiwan between 2011 and 2015 ' () 72 Food Control : 145 -152.
Perez-Escamilla, R., M.B. Gubert, B. Rogers and A. Hromi-Fiedler. 2017. Food security measurement and governance: assessment of the usefulness of diverse food insecurity indicators for policy makers. Global Food Security 14: 96-104.
'Food security measurement and governance: assessment of the usefulness of diverse food insecurity indicators for policy makers ' () 14 Global Food Security : 96 -104.
Qiao, J., D. Yu and Y. Liu. 2017. Quantifying the impacts of climatic trend and fluctuation on crop yields in northern China. Environmental Monitoring & Assessment 189(11): 532.
'Quantifying the impacts of climatic trend and fluctuation on crop yields in northern China ' () 189 Environmental Monitoring & Assessment : 532 .
Rada, N., C. Wang and L. Qin. 2015. Subsidy or market reform? Rethinking China’s farm consolidation strategy. Food Policy 57: 93-103.
'Subsidy or market reform? Rethinking China’s farm consolidation strategy ' () 57 Food Policy : 93 -103.
Shen, R., C. Wang and B. Sun. 2018. Soil related scientific and technological problems in implementing strategy of ‘storing grain in land and technology’. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences 33(2): 135-144.
'Soil related scientific and technological problems in implementing strategy of ‘storing grain in land and technology’ ' () 33 Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences : 135 -144.
Song, W., Z. Han and X. Deng. 2016. Changes in productivity, efficiency and technology of China’s crop production under rural restructuring. Journal of Rural Studies 47: 563-576.
'Changes in productivity, efficiency and technology of China’s crop production under rural restructuring ' () 47 Journal of Rural Studies : 563 -576.
Tao, F., Z. Zhang and M. Yokozawa. 2011. Dangerous levels of climate change for agricultural production in China. Regional Environmental Change 11(1): 41-48.
'Dangerous levels of climate change for agricultural production in China ' () 11 Regional Environmental Change : 41 -48.
Tao, F., Z. Zhang, S. Zhang and R.P. Rötter. 2016. Variability in crop yields associated with climate anomalies in China over the past three decades. Regional Environmental Change 16(6): 1715-1723.
'Variability in crop yields associated with climate anomalies in China over the past three decades ' () 16 Regional Environmental Change : 1715 -1723.
Tao, J. and F. Zhou. 2014. Changing grain production in China: perspective on changing grain acreage. 3rd International Conference of Agro-geoinformatics. August 11-14, 2014. Beijing, China, pp. 1-5.
'Changing grain production in China: perspective on changing grain acreage ', () 1 -5.
United Nations (UN), 2017. World population projected to reach 9.8 billion in 2050, and 11.2 billion in 2100. United Nations, New York, NY, USA. Available at: https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/population/world-population-prospects-2017.html
Valin, H., R.D. Sands, D.V.D. Mensbrugghe, G.C. Nelson, H. Ahammad and E. Blanc. 2014. The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models. Agricultural Economics 45(1): 51-67.
'The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models ' () 45 Agricultural Economics : 51 -67.
Wang, C., Z. Zhang and X. Fei. 2018. Efficiency and risk in sustaining China’s food production and security: evidence from micro-level panel data analysis of Japonica rice production. Sustainability 10(4): 1282-1295.
'Efficiency and risk in sustaining China’s food production and security: evidence from micro-level panel data analysis of Japonica rice production ' () 10 Sustainability : 1282 -1295.
Wu, J., J. Zhang, S. Wang and F. Kong. 2016. Assessment of food security in China: a new perspective based on production-consumption coordination. Sustainability 8(3): 183.
'Assessment of food security in China: a new perspective based on production-consumption coordination ' () 8 Sustainability : 183 .
Wu, W., P.H. Verburg and H. Tang. 2014. Climate change and the food production system: impacts and adaptation in China. Regional Environmental Change 14(1): 1-5.
'Climate change and the food production system: impacts and adaptation in China ' () 14 Regional Environmental Change : 1 -5.
Xiao, D., J. Cao, H. Bai, Y. Qi and Y. Shen. 2017a. Assessing the impacts of climate variables and sowing date on spring wheat yield in the northern China. International Journal of Agriculture & Biology 19: 1551-1558.
'Assessing the impacts of climate variables and sowing date on spring wheat yield in the northern China ' () 19 International Journal of Agriculture & Biology : 1551 -1558.
Xiao, Y., S. Cheng and G. Xie. 2017b. The balance between supply and consumption of the main types of grain in China. Journal of Natural Resources 32(6): 927-936.
'The balance between supply and consumption of the main types of grain in China ' () 32 Journal of Natural Resources : 927 -936.
Xie, C. and M.A. Marchant. 2015. Supplying China’s growing appetite for poultry. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review 18(A): 317-334.
'Supplying China’s growing appetite for poultry ' () 18 International Food and Agribusiness Management Review : 317 -334.
Xin, L., J. Wang and L. Wang. 2015. Prospect of per capita grain demand driven by dietary structure change in China. Resources Science 37(7): 1347-1356.
'Prospect of per capita grain demand driven by dietary structure change in China ' () 37 Resources Science : 1347 -1356.
Yan, H. 2018. The influence of the two-child policy on China’s population projection. International Journal of Statistics and Probability 7(3): 94.
'The influence of the two-child policy on China’s population projection ' () 7 International Journal of Statistics and Probability : 94 .
Ye, L., Z. Li., P. Yang, W. Wu, G. Yang and Y. Fu. 2013. Climate change impact on China food security in 2050. Agronomy for Sustainable Development 33(2): 363-374.
'Climate change impact on China food security in 2050 ' () 33 Agronomy for Sustainable Development : 363 -374.
Yi, F., D. Sun and Y. Zhou. 2015. Grain subsidy, liquidity constraints and food security – impact of the grain subsidy program on the grain-sown areas in China. Food Policy 50: 114-124.
'Grain subsidy, liquidity constraints and food security – impact of the grain subsidy program on the grain-sown areas in China ' () 50 Food Policy : 114 -124.
Zhang, Z., G.P. Lei, H. Zhang and K.K. Shan. 2014. Time sequence analysis of high-standard basic farmland construction in 853 farm of Heilongjiang province. Economic Geography 8(3): 98-112.
'Time sequence analysis of high-standard basic farmland construction in 853 farm of Heilongjiang province ' () 8 Economic Geography : 98 -112.
Zhao, Z., X. Liu, P. Wang, J. Shuai, C. Yi and S. Xiao. 2014. The heat deficit indicator depicts the responses of rice yield to climate change in the northeastern three provinces of China. Regional Environmental Change 14(1): 27-38.
'The heat deficit indicator depicts the responses of rice yield to climate change in the northeastern three provinces of China ' () 14 Regional Environmental Change : 27 -38.
All Time | Past 365 days | Past 30 Days | |
---|---|---|---|
Abstract Views | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Full Text Views | 145 | 143 | 24 |
PDF Views & Downloads | 99 | 92 | 4 |
With the increase of food demand in China and the growth of world population, whether China can meet her peak food demand in the future or not has become an issue worth study. By consolidating relevant factors of food demand in China, the peak food demand is predicted to occur in 2036, and the peak food demand amount is predicted at 758.17 million tons by factor and synthetical analysis. Through factor consolidation and scenario test, the following policy implications have been unearthed: China’s food production capability is crucial to maintain her future food security; improving the gain yield is the key method; monitoring China’s population change and formulating appropriate population policies are important; reducing food waste, curbing unreasonable consumption and promoting healthy and green diet are needed; construction of high standard farmland will be significant in maintaining the food security; and excessive stored food should be de-stocked in a timely manner.
All Time | Past 365 days | Past 30 Days | |
---|---|---|---|
Abstract Views | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Full Text Views | 145 | 143 | 24 |
PDF Views & Downloads | 99 | 92 | 4 |