Introducing an Agenda-based Measurement of Mediation Success: The Divergent Effects of the Manipulation Strategy in African Civil Wars

in International Negotiation
Restricted Access
Get Access to Full Text
Rent on DeepDyve

Have an Access Token?



Enter your access token to activate and access content online.

Please login and go to your personal user account to enter your access token.



Help

Have Institutional Access?



Access content through your institution. Any other coaching guidance?



Connect

Abstract

Previous quantitative mediation research has relied on generalized measurements of “mediation success,” such as agreements, ceasefires or peace durability. However, these measurements of success do not take into account what mediators were mandated to achieve. We propose benchmarking outcomes against the explicit mandates of the interventions, a novel way of conceptualizing mediation success. Utilizing data on the agendas of mediated negotiations in intrastate armed conflicts in Africa between 1990 and 2010 as a proxy for mediation mandates, we examine the relative effectiveness of manipulation as a mediation strategy. The study shows, in contrast to previous research, that third party manipulation does not have a significant effect on whether the goal of a given round of negotiations is achieved and, that under some circumstances, may decrease the likelihood of mediation success. We discuss the opportunities as well as limitations of a mandate-based approach to the study of mediation success.

Introducing an Agenda-based Measurement of Mediation Success: The Divergent Effects of the Manipulation Strategy in African Civil Wars

in International Negotiation

Sections

References

  • AutesserreS. (2017). “International Peacebuilding and Local Success: Assumptions and Effectiveness.” International Studies Review 19: 114132.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • BachrachP. and M.S. Baratz (1962). “Two Faces of Power.” The American Political Science Review 56: 947952.

  • BeardsleyK. (2008). “Agreement Without Peace? International Mediation and TimeInconsistency Problems.” American Journal of Political Science 52: 723740.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • BeardsleyK. (2011). The Mediation DilemmaIthaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press.

  • BeardsleyK. (2013). “The UN at the Peacemaking – Peacebuilding Nexus.” ConflictManagement and Peace Science 30: 369386.

  • BeardsleyK. and J.M. Greig (2009). “Disaggregating the Incentives of Conflict Management:An Introduction.” International Interactions 35: 243248.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • BeardsleyK.D.M. QuinnB. Biswaset al. (2006). “Mediation Style and Crisis Outcomes.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 50: 5886.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • BellamyA.J. and P.D. Williams (2011). “The New Politics of Protection? Côte d’Ivoire, Libya and the Responsibility to Protect.” International Affairs 87: 825850.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • BercovitchJ. (1992). “The Structure and Diversity of Mediation in International Relations” in J. Bercovitch and J.Z. Rubin editors Mediation in International Relations: Multiple Approaches to Conflict Management. Basingstoke: Macmillan.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • BercovitchJ. (1996). “Introduction: Thinking about Mediation” in J. Bercovitch editor Resolving International Conflicts: The Theory and Practice of Mediation. London: Lynne Rienner xiv 279.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • BercovitchJ. (2002). “Introduction: Putting Mediation in Context” in J. Bercovitch editor Studies in International Mediation. Houndsmill: Palgrave.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • BercovitchJ. and K. DeRouen (2005). “Managing Ethnic Civil Wars: Assessing the Determinants of Successful Mediation.” Civil Wars 7: 98116.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • BercovitchJ. and S. Gartner (2006). “Is There Method in the Madness of Mediation? Some Lessons for Mediators from Quantitative Studies of Mediation.” International Interactions 32: 329354.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • BercovitchJ. and A. Houston (1996). “The Study of International Mediation: Theoretical Issues and Empirical Evidence” in J. Bercovitch editor Resolving International Conflicts: The Theory and Practice of Mediation. London: Lynne Rienner.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • BercovitchJ.J.T. Anagnoson and D.L. Wille (1991). “Some Conceptual Issues and Empirical Trends in the Study of Successful Mediation in International Relations.” Journal of Peace Research 28: 717.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • BerikerN. (1995). “Mediating Regional Conflicts and Negotiating Flexibility: Peace Efforts in Bosnia-Herzegovina.” The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 542: 185201.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • BöhmeltT. (2010). “The Effectiveness of Tracks of Diplomacy Strategies in Third-Party Interventions.” Journal of Peace Research 47: 167178.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • BroschéJ. and A. Duursma (2017). “Hurdles to Peace: a Level-of-Analysis Approach to Resolving Sudan’s Civil Wars.” Third World Quarterly.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Butts T. (2010). Measuring Mediator Attitudes towards Mediation: Developing the Attitudes Towards Mediation Scale. Ph.D. Dissertation. Newark NJ: Rutgers University.

  • ClaytonG. (2013). “Relative Rebel Strength and the Onset and Outcome of Civil War Mediation.” Journal of Peace Research 50: 609622.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Curran D.J. K. Sebenius and M. Watkins (2004). “Two Paths to Peace: Contrasting George Mitchell in Northern Ireland with Richard Holbrooke in Bosnia-Herzegovina.” Negotiation Journal 20: 513537.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • D’Estrée T.P.L. A. FastJ. N. Weisset al. (2001). “Changing the Debate about ‘Success’ in Conflict Resolution Efforts.” Negotiation Journal 17: 101113.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • De WaalA. (2007). “Darfur’s Deadline: The Final Days of the Abuja Peace Process” in A. De Waal editor War in Darfur and the Search for Peace. London: Global Equity Initiative.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • DeRouenK.J. Bercovitch and P. Pospieszna (2011). “Introducing the Civil Wars Mediation (CWM) Dataset.” Journal of Peace Research 48: 663672.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • DuursmaA. (2014). “A Current Literature Review of International Mediation.” International Journal of Conflict Management 25: 8198.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • DuursmaA. (2017a). “Partnering to Make Peace: The Effectiveness of Joint African and Non African Mediation Efforts.” International Peacekeeping 24.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • DuursmaA. (2017b). “When to Get Out of the Trench: Using Smart Pressure to Resolve Civil Wars.” Civil Wars 17: 4361.

  • El-TomA.O. (2011). Darfur JEM and the Khalil Ibrahim Story. Trenton: Red Sea Press.

  • FearonJ.D. (2004). “Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others?Journal of Peace Research 41: 275301.

  • FrazierD.V. and W.J. Dixon (2006). “Third-Party Intermediaries and Negotiated Settlements, 1946–2000.” International Interactions 32: 385408.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • FreiD. (1976). “Conditions Affecting Effectiveness of International Mediation.” Papers Peace Science Society International 26: 6784.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • GartnerS.S. and J. Bercovitch (2006). “Overcoming Obstacles to Peace: The Contribution of Mediation to Short-Lived Conflict Settlements.” International Studies Quarterly 50: 819840.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • GelpiChristopher (1999). “Alliances as Instruments of Intra-Allied Control” in H. HaftendornC. Wallander and R. Keohane editors Imperfect Unions: Security Institutions over Time and Space. Oxford: Oxford University Press107139.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • GreigJ.M. (2005). “Stepping into the Fray: When Do Mediators Mediate?American Journal of Political Science 49: 249266.

  • GreigJ.M. and P.F. Diehl (2012). International MediationCambridge: Polity.

  • GreigJ.M. and P.M. Regan (2008). “When Do They Say Yes? An Analysis of the Willingness to Offer and Accept Mediation in Civil Wars.” International Studies Quarterly 52: 759781.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • GursesM.N. Rost and P. McLeod (2008). “Mediating Civil War Settlements and the Duration of Peace.” International Interactions 34: 129155.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • HaasE.B. (1986). “Why We Still Need the United Nations: The Collective Management of International Conflict, 1945–1984.” Policy Papers in International Affairs 26 University of California Berkeley.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • HarbomL.E. Melander and P. Wallensteen (2008). “Dyadic Dimensions of Armed Conflict, 1946–2007.” Journal of Peace Research 45: 697710.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • HögbladhS. (2012). “Peace Agreements 1975–2011: Updating the UCDP Peace Agreement Dataset” in T. Pettersson and L. Themnér editors States in Armed Conflict 2011. Uppsala University: Department of Peace and Conflict Research.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • HopmannP.T. (1995). “Two Paradigms of Negotiation: Bargaining and Problem Solving.” The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 542: 2447.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Crisis Group (1998). “Burundi under Siege: Lift the Sanctions; Re-Launch the Peace Process.” Africa Rapport 1. Brussels.

  • International Crisis Group (2008). “Chad: A New Conflict Resolution Framework.” Africa Report 144. Brussels.

  • IyobR. and G.M. Khadiagala (2006). Sudan: The Elusive Quest for PeaceBoulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.

  • JohnsonH.F. (2011). Waging Peace in Sudan: The Inside Story of the Negotiations that Ended Africa’s Longest Civil War. Eastbourne: Sussex Academic Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • KelmanH.C. (2005). “Building Trust Among Enemies: The Central Challenge forInternational Conflict Resolution.” International Journal of Intercultural Relations 29: 639650.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • KhadiagalaG.M. (2007). Meddlers or Mediators? African Interveners in Civil Conflicts in Eastern Africa. Leiden: Martinus Nijhoff.

  • KhalifaM.E. (1999). Ten Years of Peacemaking in Sudan: 1989–1999Khartoum.

  • KleiboerM. (1996). “Understanding Success and Failure of International Mediation.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 40: 360389.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • KresselK.T. HendersonW. Reichet al. (2012). “Multidimensional Analysis of Conflict Mediator Style.” Conflict Resolution Quarterly 30: 135171.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • LindgrenM. (2016). “Peacemaking Up Close: Expanding Mediator Styles of International Mediators.” Department of Peace and Conflict Research Uppsala University.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • LundgrenM. (2017). “Which type of international organizations can settle civil wars?The Review of International Organizations 124: 613641.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • MasonT.D. and P.J. Fett (1996). “How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach”. The Journal of Conflict Resolution 40: 546568.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • MaundiM.O.I.W. ZartmanG.M. Khadiagalaet al. (2006). Getting In: Mediators’ Entry into the Settlement of African ConflictsWashington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • MelinM.M. (2011). “The Impact of State Relationships on If, When, and How Conflict Management Occurs.” International Studies Quarterly 55: 691715.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • MelinM.M.S.S. Gartner and J. Bercovitch (2013). “Fear of Rejection: The Puzzle of Unaccepted Mediation Offers in International Conflict.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 30: 354368.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • MsabahaI. (1995). “Negotiating an End to Mozambiques Murderous Rebellion” in I.W. Zartman editor Elusive Peace: Negotiating an End to Civil Wars. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • NathanL. (1999). “When Push Comes to Shove: The Failure of International Mediation in African Civil Wars.” Track Two 8.

  • NathanL. (2017). “Marching Orders: Exploring the Mediation Mandate.” African Security 10: 155175.

  • NathanL. (2018). “The Mandate Effect: A Typology and Conceptualization of Mediation Mandates.” Peace & Change 43: 318343.

  • NilssonD. (2008). “Partial Peace: Rebel Groups Inside and Outside of Civil War Settlements.” Journal of Peace Research 45: 479495.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • PetterssonT. (2011). “Pillars of Strength: External Support to Warring Parties” in T. Pettersson and L. Themnér editors States in Armed Conflict 2010 Research Report. Uppsala Universitetstryckeriet94: 4160.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • PrincenT. (1992). Intermediaries in International Conflict. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

  • PruittD.G.R.S. PeirceN.B. McGillicuddyet al. (1993). “Long-Term Success in Mediation.” Law and Human Behavior 17: 313330.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • QuinnD.J. WilkenfeldP. Eralpet al. (2013). “Crisis Managers but Not Conflict Resolvers: Mediating Ethnic Intrastate Conflict in Africa.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 30: 387406.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • QuinnD.J. WilkenfeldK. Smaricket al. (2006). “Power Play: Mediation in Symmetric and Asymmetric International Crises.” International Interactions 32: 441470.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • QuinnJ.M.T.D. Mason and M. Gurses (2007). “Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence.” International Interactions 33: 167193.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • RauchhausR.W. (2006). “Asymmetric Information, Mediation, and Conflict Management.” World Politics 58: 207241.

  • ReganP.M. and A. Aydin (2006). “Diplomacy and Other Forms of Intervention in Civil Wars.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 50: 736756.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • ReganP.M. and A.C. Stam (2000). “In the Nick of Time: Conflict Management, Mediation Timing, and the Duration of Interstate Disputes.” International Studies Quarterly 44: 239260.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • RothchildD.S. (1997). Managing Ethnic Conflict in Africa: Pressures and Incentives for Cooperation. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • SavunB. (2008). “Information, Bias, and Mediation Success.” International Studies Quarterly 52: 2547.

  • SchomerusM. and B. Acan Ogwaro (2010). “Searching for Solutions in Juba: an Overview.” Initiatives to End the Violence in Northern Uganda: 2002–09 and the Juba Peace Process. London: Conciliation Resources.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • SchrodtP.A. and D.J. Gerner (2004). “An Event Data Analysis of Third-Party Mediation in the Middle East and Balkans.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 48: 310330.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • SiskT.D. (2009). International Mediation in Civil Wars: Bargaining with Bullets. London: Routledge.

  • SteinJ.G. (1989). “Getting to the Table: Processes of International Prenegotiation.” International Journal: Canada’s Journal of Global Policy Analysis 44: 231236.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • SternP.C. and D. Druckman (2000). “Evaluating Interventions in History: The Case of International Conflict Resolution.” International Studies Review 2: 3363.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Svensson. I. (2007). “Bargaining, Bias and Peace Brokers: How Rebels Commit to Peace.” Journal of Peace Research 44: 177194.

  • SvenssonI. (2009). “Who Brings Which Peace? Neutral versus Biased Mediation and Institutional Peace Arrangements in Civil Wars.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 53: 446469.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Svensson I. and A. Duursma (2014). “Mediation Mandates: Towards A New Way of Conceptualising ‘Success’ in International Mediation.” Paper presented at the International Studies Association (ISA) annual convention Toronto Canada March 26–29.

  • SvenssonI. and P. Wallensteen (2010). The Go-Between: Jan Eliasson and the Styles of Mediation. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • TiedemannK. (2009). “Holbrooke on Success: ‘We Know It When We’ll See It’.” Foreign Policy.

  • ToftM.D. (2003). The Geography of Ethnic Violence: Identity Interests and the Indivisibility of Territory. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • TomzM.J. Wittenberg and G. King (2003). “CLARIFY: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results.” Journal of Statistical Software.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • TouvalS. (1982). The Peace Brokers: Mediators in the Arab-Israeli Conflict 1948–1979. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

  • TouvalS. and I.W. Zartman (1985). “Introduction: Mediation in Theory” in I.W. Zartman and S. Touval editors International Mediation in Theory and Practice. Boulder: Westview Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • VukovićS. (2014). “Three degrees of success in international mediation.” Millennium: Journal of International Studies 423: 966976.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • WallJ.A. and S. Chan-Serafin (2009). “Processes in Civil Case Mediations.” Conflict Resolution Quarterly 26: 261291.

  • WallJ.A. and T.C. Dunne (2012). “Mediation Research: A Current Review.” Negotiation Journal 28: 217244.

  • WallensteenP. and I. Svensson (2014). “Talking Peace: International Mediation in Armed Conflicts.” Journal of Peace Research 51: 315327.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • WalterB.F. (2002). Committing to Peace: the Successful Settlement of Civil Wars. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

  • WalterB.F. (2003). “Explaining the Intractability of Territorial Conflict.” International Studies Review 5: 137153.

  • WernerS. and A. Yuen (2005). “Making and Keeping Peace.” International Organization 59: 261292.

  • WilkenfeldJ. (2005). Mediating International Crises. London: Routledge.

  • WilkenfeldJ.K. YoungV. Asalet al. (2003). “Mediating International Crises: Cross-National and Experimental Perspectives.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 47: 279301.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • WönduS. and A.M. Lesch (2000). Battle for Peace in Sudan: An Analysis of the Abuja Conferences 1992–1993Lanham: University Press of America.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • YoungO.R. (1994). International Governance: Protecting the Environment in a Stateless Society. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.

  • ZartmanI.W. (1989). “Prenegotiation: Phases and Functions”. International Journal 44: 237253.

  • ZenelajR.N. Beriker and E. Hatipoglu (2015). “Determinants of Mediation Success in Post Conflict Bosnia: A Focused Comparison.” Australian Journal of International Affairs 69: 414437.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • ZoubirY.H. (1996). “The Western Sahara Conflict: A Case Study in Failure of Prenegotiation and Prolongation of Conflict.” California Western International Law Journal 26: 173213.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • ZubekJ.M.D.G. PruittR.S. Peirceet al. (1992). “Disputant and Mediator Behaviors Affecting Short-Term Success in Mediation.” The Journal of Conflict Resolution 36: 546572.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation

Figures

  • View in gallery
    The success rates of mediated dyadic peace negotiations in intrastate armed conflicts in Africa, 1990–2010
  • View in gallery
    The use of third-party manipulation in mediated dyadic peace negotiations in intrastate armed conflicts in Africa, 1990–2010
  • View in gallery
    Logit estimates on the likelihood of mediation success in peace negotiations in Africa, 1990–2010

Index Card

Content Metrics

Content Metrics

All Time Past Year Past 30 Days
Abstract Views 348 348 76
Full Text Views 22 22 10
PDF Downloads 13 13 5
EPUB Downloads 0 0 0