Climate Change, Oceans, and Human Health

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  • 1 School of the Coast and Environment, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA * This work was supported by NSF grant OCE04-32479 and NIEHS grant ES012740―01. I am indebted to Dr. Joanie Kleypas and an anonymous referee for their comments on drafts of this article.

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  • 1. For example, widespread deposits of Banded Iron Formations. 2. W.H. Schlesinger, Biogeochemistry: An Analysis of Global Change (San Diego: Academic Press, 1997).

  • 3.Id. 4. R.A. Berner and D.E. Canfield, "A New Model for Atmospheric Oxygen over Phanerozoic Time," American Journal of .Science 289 (1989): 333-361. 5. J.E. Lovelock, Gaia: A Nera l,ook at Life on Fart (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1979). 6. AJ. Watson, "Methanogenesis, Fires, and the Regulations of Atmospheric Oxygen," Biosystems 10 (1978): 293-298. 7. Schlesinger, see n. 2 above. 8. R.A. Berner and Z. Kothavala, "Geocarb III: A Revised Model of Atmospher- ic CO2 over Phanerozoic Time," American Journal of .Science 301 (2001): 182-204. 9. C. Sagan and C. Chyba, "The Early Faint Sun Paradox: Organic Shielding of Ultraviolet-Labile Greenhouse Gases," Sciences (NY) 276 (1997): 1217-1221. 10. Id.

  • 11. C. Sagan, "Reducing Greenhouses and the Temperature of Earth and Mars," Nature vol. 269 (1977): 224-226; C. Sagan and G. Mullen, "Earth and Mars: Evolution of Atmospheres and Surface Temperature," Science (NY) 177 (1972): 52-56. 12. R.A. Berner, "Geocarb II: A Revised Model of Atmospheric C02 over Phanerozoic Time," American Journal of Science 294 (1994): 56-91. 13. J.D. Hays, J. Imbrie and N J. Shackleton, "Variations in the Earth's Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice ages," .Science (NY) 194 (1976): 1121-1132.

  • 14. J.A. Raven and P.G. Falkowski, "Oceanic Sinks for Atmospheric C02," Plant, Cell fs' Environment 6 (1999): 741-755.

  • 15. The IPCC Web site is <>.

  • 16. Raven and Falkowski, see n. 14 above. 17. D. Archer, H. Kheshgi and E. Maier-Reimer, "Dynamics of Fossil Fuel C02 Neutralization by Marine CaCOa," Global Biogeochernical Cycles 12, no. 2 (1998): 259-276. 18. Id. 19. H.C. Urey, The Planets: Their Origin and Denelopynent (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1952) 20. Berner, see n. 12 above. 21. C.L. Sabine, R.A. Feely, N. Gruber, R.M. Key, K. Lee, J.L. Bullister, R. Wanninkhof, C.S. Wong, D.W.R. Wallace, B. Tilbrook, F J. Millero, T.-H. Peng, A. Kozyr, T. Ono, and A.F. Rios, "The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic C02," Science 305, no. 5682 (2004): 367-371.

  • 22. The only significant locations are the Greenland Sea and Labrador Sea off Greenland in the North Atlantic (North Atlantic Deep Water) and beneath sea ice and ice shelves along the margins of the Antarctic continent (Antarctic Bottom Water). 23. Carbon is also transported into the deep sea by the so-called biological pump, which consists primarily of the sinking of organic carbon and CaC03 synthesized by organisms in surface waters. However, because photosynthesis in the ocean is limited by nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and iron rather than by inorganic carbon, the biological pump has not been stimulated by rising C02 concentrations. 24. PJ. Cnuzen and E.F. Stoenner, "The 'Anthropocene'," Global Change Nezusletter 41 (2000): 12-13. 25. The figure of 48 percent drops to about 30 percent if deforestation is included among anthropogenic effects. 26. Sabine et al., see n. 21 above. 27. R. E. Zeebe and D. Wolf-Glad row, C02 in Sear<rater: Equilibrium, Kinetic.s, Isotopes (Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2001). 28. Royal Society, Ocean Acidification Due to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (London: Clyvedon Press, 2005); R.E. Zeebe, D.A. Wolf-Gladrow and H. Jansen,

  • "On the Time Required to Establish Chemical and Isotopic Equilibrium in the Carbon Dioxide System in Seawater," Marine Chenaistry 65, no. 3-4 (1999): 135-153. 29. SOz is actually a gas, but it undergoes a series of chemical reactions in the atmosphere to produce sulfate aerosols. 30. M.O. Andreae, C.D. Jones and P.M. Cox, "Strong present-day aerosol cooling implies a hot future," Nature 435, (2005): 1187-1190. 31. Catalytic converters remove carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and unburned hydrocarbons from automobile exhaust gases. 32. Berner, see n. 12 above.

  • 33. J.A. Church and NJ. White, "A 20th Century Acceleration in Global Sea- Level Rise," Geophysical Research Letter 33 (2006, L01602, doi:1029/2005GL024826). 34. IPCC, see n. 15 above. 35. Church and White, see n. 33 above.

  • 36. A.P. Sokolov and P.H. Stone, "Global Warming Projections: Sensitivity to Deep Ocean Mixing," in MIT Global Changejoint Progra (Cambridge, MA: Center for Global Change Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1996). 37. Sabine et al., see n. 21 above.

  • 38. D. Archer, "Fate of Fossil Fuel C02in Geologic Time," Journal of Geophysical Research 110 (2005): C09S05, doi:10.1029/2004JC002625; K. Caldeira and M. E. Wickett, "Ocean Model Predictions of Chemistry Changes from Carbon Dioxide Emissions to the Atmosphere and Ocean," Journal of Geophysical Research 110, (2005): C09S04, doi:10.1029/2004JC002671. 39. K.P. Bowman and P J. Cohen, "Interhemispheric Exchange by Seasonal Modulation of the Hadley Circulation," journal of the Atmospheric Science 54, no. 16 (1997): 2045-2059.

  • 40. J.H. Yin, "A Consistent Poleward Shift of the Storm Tracks in Simulations of 21st Century Climate," Geophysical Research Letters 32 (2005): All8701, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023684. 41. Id.

  • 42. M. E. Keim, "Cyclones, Tsunamis, and Human Health: The Key Role of Preparedness," Oceanography 19, no. 2 (2006): 40-49. 43. K. Trenberth, "Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming," Science 308 (2005): 1753-1754. 44. P J. Webster, GJ. Holland, _J.A. Curry and H.-R. Chang, "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment," Science 309 (2005): 1844-1846. 45. S.B. Goldenberg, C.W. Landsea, A.M. Mestas-Nunez and W.M. Gray, "The Recent Increase in Atlantic Hurricane Activity: Causes and Implications," Science, 293 (2001): 474-479, quote on p. 476. 46. Trenberth, see n. 43 above. 47. Webster et al., see n. 44 above.

  • 48. Keim, see n. 42 above; N.D. Walker, A. Haag, S. Balasubramanian, R. Leben, I. van Heerden, P. Kemp, and H. Mashriqui, "Hurricane Prediction: A Century of Advances," Oceanography ]9, no. 2 (2006): 24-36. 49. More than 1.7 million people in the Gut states lost power as a result of the storm. 50. J J. McCarthy, O. Canziani, N. Leary, D. Kokken, and K. White, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (New York: Cambridge, University Press, 2001).

  • 51. Keim, see n. 42 above, p. 40. 52. F. Miller, F. Thomalla, T. Downing and M. Chadwick, "Case Study: Resilient Ecosystems, Healthy Communities-Hrnnan Health and Sustainable Ecosys- tems after the December 2004 Tsunami," Oceanography 19, no. 2 (2006): 50-51.

  • 53. I�L., p. 50.

  • 54. The other two groups are the diatoms and dinoflagellates. 55. P.G. Falkowski, M.E. Katz, A.H. Knoll, A. Quigg, J.A. Raven, O. Schofield, and FJ.R. Taylor, "The Evolution of Modern Eukaryotic Phytoplankton," Science 305 (2004): 354-360. 56. The other important component being calcareous or coralline algae.

  • 57. Royal Society, see n. 28 above. 58. Royal Society, see n. 28 above. 59. J.P. Gattsuo, D. Allemand, and M. Frankignoulle, "Photosynthesis and Calcification At Cellular, Organismal and Community Levels in Coral Reefs: A Review on Interactions and Control by Carbonate Chemistry," American Zoologist 39, no. 1 (1999): 160-183; J.A. Kleypas, R.W. Buddemeier, D. Archer, J.-P. Gattuso, C. Langdon, and B.N. Opdyke, "geochemical Consequences of Increased Atmospher- ic COz on Coral Reefs," Science 284 (1999): 118-120; J.A. Kleypas, R.A. Feely, VJ. Fabry, C. Langdon, C.L. Sabine and L.L. Robbins, "Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Coral Reefs and Other Marine Calcifiers (Washington, D.C., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2006); C. Langdon, T. Takahashi, C. Sweeney, D. Chipman, J. Goddard, F. Marubini, H. Aceves, H. Barnett and M J. Atkinson, "Effect of Calcium Carbonate Saturation State on the Calcification Rate of an Experimental Coral Reef," Global Biogeochemical Cycles 14 (2000): 639-654. 60. Kleypas et al., n. 59 above; D.A. Wolf-Gladrow, U. Riebesell, S. Burkhardt, and J. Bijma, "Direct Effects of C02 Concentration on Growth and Isotopic Composition of Marine Plankton," Tellus. Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 51B, no. 2 (1999): 461-476. 61. Royal Society, see n. 28 above, p. 23.

  • 62. K. Caldeira and M.E. Wickett, "Anthropogenic Carbon and Ocean pH," Nature 425 (2003): 365. 63. Raven and Falkowski, see n. 14 above. 64. W. Fenical, "Marine Pharmaceuticals: Past, Present, and Future," Oceanog- rdphy 19, no. 2 (2006): 110-119. 65. G. Toledo, W. Green, R.A. Gonzalez, I. Christoffersen, M. Podar, H.W. Chang, T. Hemscheidt, H.G. Trapido-Rosenthal, J.M. Short, R.R. Bidigare and EJ. Mathur, "Case Study: High Throughput Cultivation for Isolation of Novel Marine Microorganisms," Oceanography 19, no. 2 (2006): 120-125. 66. R. Francois, S. Honjo, R. Krishfield and SJ. Manganini, "Factors Control- ling the Flux of Organic Carbon to the Bathypelagic Zone of the Ocean," Global Biogeochemieal Cycles 16, no. 4 (2002): 1087, doi:10.1029/2001('�B001722.

  • 67. L. Bopp, O. Aumont, S. Belviso, and P. Monfray, "Potential Impact of Climate Change on Marine Dimethyl Sulfide Emissions," Tellus. Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology 55 (2003): 11-22. 68. P.W. Boyd and S.C. Doney, "Modelling Regional Responses by Marine Pelagic Ecosystems to Global Climate Change," Geophysical Research Letters 29, no. 16 (2002): doi:10.1029/2001GL014130. 69. B.T. Huber, D.A. Hodell, and C.P. Hamilton, "Middle-Late Cretaceous Climate of the Southern High Latitudes: Stable Isotopic Evidence for Minimal Equator-To-Pole Thermal Gradients," Geological Society of America Bulletin 107, no. 10 (1996): 1164-1191. 70. Falkowski et al., see n. 55 above. 71. S. Tozzi, O. Schofield, and P.G. Falkowski, "Historical Climate Change and Ocean Turbulence As Selective Agents for Two Key Phytoplankton Functional Groups," Marine Ecology Progress Serzes 274 (2004): 123-132. 72. Falkowski et al., see n. 55 above. 73. L.C. Backer and D. McGillicuddy, Jr., "Harmful Algal Blooms At the Interface Between Coastal Oceanography and Human Health," Oceanography 19, no. 2 (2006): 94-106.

  • 74. S. Hales, P. Weinstein, and A. Woodward, "Ciguatera (Fish Poisoning), El Nino, and Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures," Ecosystem Health 5, no. 1 (1999): 20-25. 75. P.A. Tester, "Harmful Marine Phytoplankton and Shellfish Toxicity: Potential Consequences of Climate Change," Annuls of the Nern York Acaderny of Sciences 740 (1994): 69-76. 76. Bleaching can be caused by, inter alia, anomalously low temperatures, sedimentation, xenobiotics, changes in salinity, and subaerial exposure; R.W. Buddemeier, J.A. Kleypas and R.B. Aronson, "Coral Reefs and Global Climate Change: Potential Contributions of Climate Change to Stresses on Coral Reef Ecosystems," (Arlington, VA: Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2004), pp. 1-42. 77. Id.

  • 78. Id. 79. Id., Table 1. 80. Id, p. 31. 81. Boyd and Doney, see n. 68 above.

  • 82. J. Whitty, "The Fate of the Ocean," MotlaerJones 31, no. 2 (2006): 32-48. 83. E. Dewailly and A. Knap, "Food from the Oceans and Human Health: Balancing Risks and Benefits," Oceanography 19, no. 2 (2006): 84-87. 84. WHO, The World Healtlz Resort, 1999: Making a Di`ference (Geneva: World Health Organization, 1999). 85. A. McMichael and A. Githeko, "Human Health," in Clinzate Change 2001: Working Crroup II: Impacts, Adrzptation and Vulnerability, U. Confalonieri and A. Woodward eds. (Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001), pp. 451-485. 86. Id.

  • 87.Id. 88. Id. 89. Id., p. 468. 90. Id.

  • 91. DJ. Gubler, "Yellow Fever," in Textbook of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, R.D. Feigin and J.D. Cherry eds. (W. B. Saunders Co., 1998), pp. 1981-1984. 92. Id. 93. <>. 94. Id. 95. E. Laws, "Case Study: Cholera," Oceanography 19, no. 2 (2006): 81-83.

  • 96. McMichael and Githeko, see n. 86 above. 97. Laws, see n. 95 above. 98. E.K. Lipp, A. Huq, and R.R. Colwell, "Effects of Global Climate on Infectious Disease: The Cholera Model," Clinical Microbiology Re/lie1/ls 15, no. 4 (2002): 757-770. 99. R.R. Colwell, "Global Climate and Infectious Disease: The Cholera Paradigm," Science 274 (1996): 2025-2031. 100. B. Lobitz, L. Beck, A. Huq, B. Wood, G. Fuchs, A.S.G. Fanique, and R.R. Colwell, "Climate and Infectious Disease: Use of Remote Sensing for Detection of Vibrio Cholerae by Indirect Measurement," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, ursa 97 (2000): 1438-1443. 101. M. Pascual, X. Rodo, S.P. Ellner, R.R. Colwell, and MJ. Bouma, "Cholera Dynamics and El Nino-Southern Oscillation," Science 289 (2000): 1766-1769.

  • 102. Sea ice contains very little salt compared to the water from which it was formed. The liquid brines that remain after sea ice forms are literally at the freezing point of seawater and are hypersaline due to the exclusion of salt from the ice.

  • 103. S. Manabe and R J. Stouffer, "Two Stable Equilibria of a Coupled Ocean- Atmosphere Model," Journal of Climate 1 (1988): 841-866; S. Rahmstorf and A. Ganopolski, "Long-Term Global Warming Scenarios Computed With an Efficient Coupled Climate Model," Climatic Change 43, no. 2 (1999): 353-367. 104. M.G. Gross, Oceanography: A View of the Earth 3rd ed. (Englewood Cliffs, N J.: Prentice-Hall, 1982).

  • 105. One Sverdrup = 10fi m�/s or 3.2 x 101 km�/y. 106. S. Rahmstorf, "The Thermohaline Ocean Circulation: A System With Dangerous Thresholds?," Climccte Change 46 (2000): 247-256.

  • 107. W.S. Broecker, "Thermohaline Circulation, the Achilles Heel of Our Climate System: Will Man-Made C02 Upset the Current Balance?," Science 278 (1997): 1582-1588. 108. Id. 109. Lake Agassiz was an immense lake, larger than the area of the present-day Great Lakes combined, and covered much of Manitoba, Ontario, Saskatchewan, and northern Minnesota and North Dakota. It appears to have formed ca. 13,000 years ago and was fed by glacial runoff. At various times it discharged to the south through the Mississippi River system or to the northwest through the Mackenzie River. The event that triggered drainage of about 85 percent of Lake Agassiz's volume through the St. Lawrence River about 12,700 years ago was apparently the failure of an ice dam. Modern remnants of Lake Agassiz include, inter alia, Lake Winnipeg, Lake Winnipegosis, Lake Manitoba, and Lake of the Woods. 110. S. Perkins, "Once upon a Lake," Sciences Nerus 162, no. 18 (2002): 283. 111. For example, large ice-dammed lakes that are known to have formed in the Siberian Altai Mountains.

  • 112. D.C. Barber, A. Dyke, C. Hillaire-Marcel, A.E. Jennings, J.T. Andrews, M.W. Kerwin, G. Bilodeau, R. McNeely, J. Southon, M.D. Morehead, and J.-M. Gagnon, "Forcing of the cold event of 8,200 years ago by catastrophic drainage of Laurentide lakes," Nature 400 (1999): 344-348. 113. Id. 114. G. Bond, W.J. Showers, M. Cheseby, R. Lotti, P. Almasi, P. deMenocal, P. Priore, H. Cullen, I. Hajdas, and G. Bonani, "A Pervasive Millennial-Scale Cycle in North Atlantic Holocene and Glacial Climates," Science 278 (1997): 1257-1266; P. deMenocal, J. Ortiz, T. Guilderson, and M. Sarnthein, "Coherent High- and Low- Latitude Climate Variability During the Holocene Warm Period," Science 288 (2000): 2198-2202.

  • 115. DeMenocal et al., see n. 114 above, p. 2201. 116. Rahmstorf, see n. 107 above. 117. I�l., p. 251. 118. J. M. Gregory, P. Huybrechts, and S. C. B. Raper, "Threatened Loss of the Greenland Ice-Sheet," Nature 428 (2004): 616. 119. Id.

  • 120. Caldeira and Wickett, see n. 62 above. 121. Berner, see n. 12 above. 122. Rahmstorf, see n. 107 above. 123. Caldeira and Wickett, see n. 62 above. 124. Rahmstorf, see n. 107 above, p. 253. 125. Id., p. 252.

  • 131. J.T. Overpeck, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, G.H. Miller, D.R. Muhs, R.B. Alley, and J.T. Kiehl, "Paleoclirnatic Evidence for Future Ice-Sheet Instability and Rapid Sea- Level Rise," Science 311 (2006): 1747-1750, p. 1747.

  • 132. Rignot and Thomas, see n. 126 above, p. 1505. 133. Smith et al, see n. 128 above. 134. Id., p. 951. 135. Id., p. 949. 136. B. Ammann, "Biotic Responses to Rapid Climatic Changes: Introduction to a Multidisciplinary Study of the Younger Dryas and Minor Oscillations on an Altitudinal Transect in the Swiss Alps," Palaeogeography, Palaeclirzzatology, Palaeoecology 159 (2000): 191-201; B. Ammann, HJ.B. Birks, SJ. Brooks, U. Eicher, U. von Grafenstein, W. Hofmann, G. Lemdahl, J. Schwander, K. Tobolski and L. Wick, "Quantification of Biotic Responses to Rapid Climatic Changes Around the Young Dryas-A Synthesis," Palaeogeograpizy, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 159 (2000): 313-347. 137. Smith et al, see n. 128 above. 138. Id.

  • 139. A lesson apparently being learned the hard way by mamifacturers and drivers of gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles.


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